Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Macroeconomics  |  September 03, 2010 10:57:07

Estimate: Many unemployed again extended


Preliminary views on the number of jobs in non-agricultural sector in the U.S. (August)

§          We expect that the number of jobs in non-agricultural sector recognizes the August decline by 125 thousand., Primarily due to layoffs of temporary workers participating in the census.

§          We expect that the unemployment rate will rise from 9.5% to 9.6%.

§          We assume that the number of jobs in the private sector to grow by 5 thousand., While most of the net recruitment of the service sector.

§          Public sector seems to come by a total of 130 thousand. jobs, although most of them related to the regular census in the U.S., which is done every ten years. It is expected that it will lay off in the aggregate as well as state and local authorities.

Number of jobs in non-agricultural sector is still under the influence of census

Last month came to a place other temporary workers in the census, which downloads the monthly change in total jobs in the red. We expect the figure at -125 thousand., And -115 thousand. in connection with the census the 2010th

After the peak, which occurred at recruitment in May, the majority of temporary workers hired for the census and released again assume that August will be the last month, follows extensive layoffs. If it turns out that was released in August of 115 thousand. Census workers will generally remain there only just 81 thousand.

It seems that a series of increases in the number of net new jobs in the private sector will continue tomorrow, but only just. The economy in the past few months has slowed considerably, which is reflected in a decline in the number of net new jobs in the private sector, which takes place from the April peak (241 thousand)..

Number of new applications for unemployment benefits rose in August to 485 thousand so far., With the first seven months of 2010, it was an average of 463 thousand. The employment report issued by the company Automatic Data Processing, states that in the private sector decreased in the Aug. 10 thousand. jobs, the only bright spot is the services sector (+30 thousand).. ADP's report also states that after a few months when net jobs increased, net jobs began to decline in both the small and midsize companies . A prerequisite for sustainable economic recovery is just improvement in small business segment.

State and local budgets are under great pressure and the employment situation is a reflection - a fall from a peak in August 2008 amounted to 316 thousand. The economic difficulties of the public sector is not in our view, far from complete and we expect that employment in this sector will continue to decrease.


The unemployment rate climbs to 9.6%

From the previous 9.5% unemployment rate in August to 9.6% climbs. A survey of households on the basis of calculating the unemployment rate shows that the net job losses over the past three months amounts to a total of 495 thousand. However, the overall employment picture improved (if it can not say when the unemployment rate at 9.5%!) Loss of civilian labor force, whose numbers declined by almost 1.2 miles . If labor supply over the last four months did not change, the unemployment rate should now reached 10.2%.

The participation rate during this recession sharply reduced and is currently on the value of 64.6%. So low came last in 1985 and although participation rates are declining productive population in the labor market has a positive effect on the unemployment rate, certainly not anything positive for the average unemployed American. It means only that people stop looking for work.

In summer, the U.S. economy slowed and we expect this will be reflected in tomorrow's employment report. We expect that the unemployment rate will rise and with it employment in the private sector. The private sector will contribute 5 thousand. (Net) new jobs, but it does not improve the overall score, decrease in the number of jobs will reach 125 thousand this time. The unemployment rate climbs to 9.6% without the participation rate has fallen too.

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