Commerzbank (Commerzbank)
World markets  |  September 03, 2010 12:33:15

Weekly 35th Week - Bears sat on the bench


Shares added, when the bears sat on the bench. With markets waved economic data. ISM index fell pleasantly surprised and concerned about the fall back into recession. Dollar treading water and the situation could get.

Introduction of the week in the stock market did not start convincing and also published the eurozone economic sentiment and ongoing activities related to mergers and acquisitions, there was no evidence that the buyers had to leave the shell. Improved consumer confidence in the outcome of the United States began to change and the market situation has stabilized. Investors fortunately dismantling the figure too, because a closer look at U.S. numbers cause for great jubilation did not offer. The increase in consumer confidence index from 51 to 53.50 was caused by better expectations. Assessment of the current situation was the worst since February. Trust continues pošramocuje high unemployment and stagnant real wages.The actual doping came as the result of market sentiment in the Chinese industry and economic growth in Australia, which joined the U.S. ISM index. Business sentiment index for August in the industry, a key leading indicator rose to 56.3 versus an expected decline to 53 Continued expansion of the industrial sector, which had already been driving force of the economy should offset the stagnation of some other sectors and to help prevent collapse into a new recession. The reaction was immediate. Players who flashed soot into the momentum of the market and according to some merchants arrived to exchange large orders and aggressive hedge funds. Been doing the whole market across the board, the most economically sensitive of course titles. For example. Shares of heavy equipment manufacturer Caterpillar flew about 5%.The company said that within two years plans to invest in expansion of its manufacturing plants in Brazil and signaled confidence in emerging markets. Similar step increases the market can not be overstated, and investors will need a much more pleasant surprises such as the ISM index to change their attitude. The market did not pay much attention to the ECB's monetary meeting, focusing on Friday's report from the labor market, including unemployment.

The dollar initially week treading water around the 1.27 level against the euro. Unlike the stock market, the dollar was not able to get great value from the ISM indicators, probably because of fears about the labor market. ECB President Trichet at a press conference has met expectations. Liquidity in its entirety will continue until early 2011, otherwise Trichet avoided any signs of monetary policy changes in the near future. It was no surprise that the EUR / USD moved in a narrow band of 1.2777 and 1.2848, and is waiting on numbers from the labor market, because nobody wants before their publication, a large open new positions.

Whether inflation or deflation, economic slowdown or acceleration, gold at the moment it seems the ultimate investment for all eventualities. While demand is rising jewelers during the economic recovery, economic recession brings increased demand for gold as a "safe asylum". Anyway, the price of gold is again close to its historical peak (1265 dollars) in June this year. Another rise was stopped improving outlook for financial markets, which brought profit taking. Uncertain economic outlook is likely to continue to keep demand for gold, although given the current high price level is profit taking by short-term oriented players at any time.

Michal Dolezal, an analyst at Commerzbank

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