Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Finance  |  September 03, 2010 13:48:01

The S & P500 goes to 1100 points

Today, most of the published monthly reports, report on employment in the U.S.. We are under the nonfarm payrolls consensus on (and private payrolls).

S & P 500 is directed to the level of 1100, as we stated yesterday, and a strong number of nonfarm Payrolls expected to test the 1130th The soft number will cause the markets and will be back in a short time to test the level of the 1060th

What is happening?
Today will be published nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate and we expect most uninteresting message, if payrolls fall 125,000 and the unemployment rate rises to 9.6%. Positive expectations are positive data for important private sector amounting to 5,000.

ISM non-manufacturing (non-manufacturing) is also published today, even though it is possible that the loss of response to nonfarm. However, we expect that will follow the service sector and manufacturing sector will grow at a faster pace in August compared with July. We expect 55.2.

Today is the day of publication of nonfarm, which means that everything else is relegated to the sidelines when the market focuses its attention on one thing to report from the U.S. labor market.

Regarding the report, we bear a lot in relation to a consensus and we fear that the report shows only a hint of things to come. It is expected that private sector payrolls will be the day the only positive, but only because everything else is worse. 5,000 expected jobs in the private sector is not impressive when low GDP was achieved in more than a year ago. We need more than 100,000 additional jobs, only to watch the population growth, at present, but this value does not neblížíme.

Census in 2010, which is the main U.S. population census for ten years, distorts the total number of nonfarm payrolls, so instead of watching private payrolls. We expect net job losses of 115,000 temporary census figures themselves now and we expect a further net loss of 15,000 jobs in the government sector, with no employees hired for the census.So we come to a total of 125,000, when considering our 5000 expectations for private payrolls.

It is expected that the unemployment rate will rise slightly to 9.6% from 9.5% and the only reason why is not higher is that people leave the labor market. Without the downward trend recently in participation rates, the unemployment rate has now been above 10%.

Today, the ISM non-manufacturing index published (non-manufacturing), but its significance is less than usual, it is hard to not focus on the employment report. Message ISM non-manufacturing, however, contains various interesting data on the largest part of the U.S. economy. Message ISM non-manufacturing včak covers about nine tenths of the whole economy. We expect that the report indicates that the service sector in July grew at a faster pace compared to July (54.3). We expect the value of 55.2.

Factory orders (0.1% MoM) grew more slowly than our estimate (0.3%) and consensus (0.2%) mainly due to the expected orders of perishable goods. Durable goods orders have now been revised slightly higher to 0.4% MoM, while orders of perishable goods are kept at the same level.

EURUSD market options were offered mainly vols, but keeps the front end of today's publication of the NFP and the SNB and the FOMC reports in the coming weeks. In the longer term options, the market remains focused on the lower pair EURUSD, but there is no clear signal for the short term.

Regarding the USDJPY is market interest in the brokerage front-end purchase option up while they are still generally offered vols. This may be a signal that reached the bottom spot here, but of course there jsiu NFP unpredictable affairs.

Mads Kofoed, strategist markets, Saxo Bank

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Index S&P500 míří k 1100 bodům

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