Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  September 06, 2010 10:15:53

MS - comment the July industry, trade balance and retail

CSO today published data for retail trade, industry and trade balance, all for July, 2010.

·         Industrial production continued to grow month on month (+0.3%), annual growth reached 5.3% (market: 7.5%, CS: 6.8%), indicating that recovery in the CR is also solid and that no growth in 3Q/10 snails will not be included.   Y / y growth rate was compared with the previous 2 months low, but it was given as a base by the number of working days - adjusted for the different numbers of growth in July was 10.6%. The structure is no surprise - electrical engineering and metals, this time missing cars, but this is balanced by a strong base from last year (the end was approaching when the German scrap).New orders increased by 10% (foreign ones by 11.9%), which further supports that will not slow 3Q/10. This development is due to the solid development in Germany and reflected in the procurement and export of leading indicators. According to us but due to slow (not a recession!) That we see now in the U.S. will gradually slow down in Europe, in Germany and in our country (4Q/10-1Q/11).  

  ·         The trade balance reached a surplus of CZK 6.3 billion (market: 7 billion, MS: 9 billion), which was about 5.5 billion less than last year (but that balance was the highest in history). There are signs faster growth in imports than exports - this in turn points to a revival of both investment and consumer demand, which is import-intensive.Exports classically wife machinery and transport equipment (+19,1%), on the import side in July 2010 compared to July 2009 the balance has gone on most imports of mineral oils (oil, gas), which is in addition to seasonal and fundamental reason (activation, more traffic, etc. ). For the first 7 months of the balance of 89.5 billion surplus, which is the same as last year. The development of such proceeds in accordance with our vision of accelerating exports in 2H/10 and slightly deteriorating balance - for the whole year, it looks a little worse on balance than last year. Together with the rest of the current account (FDI outflow less dividends) strengthened the crown this year in line with the fundamentals - in 2011 it will be similar and therefore we expect to strengthen the average 24.50.  

  ·        Retail sales are expected with the highest voltage - the question was whether to confirm the recovery of consumer demand, recovery in the macro normally responds last. Sales (no SO) fell by 1% y / y (we expected +0.8%), but this was partly due to the fact that sales fell mainly those things that are most purchased   in working   days (eg non-food goods, fuel).   Adjusted for these effects, sales increased by 2.1% y / y A monthly decrease of 1.3%, although higher than we expected, but it's mainly due to decline in sales of cars, which is very volatile variable. If we look at sales without cars, where we see another m / m growth - by 0.4%.Overall, slightly positively evaluate sales - retail trade (excluding fuel) reached an average of +1.2% y / y for the last 6 months, which is solid and better than we expected at the beginning of the year. CNB In terms of GDP structure will be important later this week - if consumption proves to be faster, it will support the expected growth rates earlier. Today it certainly does not retail.



  Martin Lobotka
Czech Savings Bank, Inc.

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