Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Finance  |  September 07, 2010 11:21:14

Asian steel makers will save Obama?


Euro area Member States in September preparing for the next auction of bonds totaling some EUR 80 billion, which again brought to the forefront of European concerns about sovereign debt. This amount is approximately two times higher than those of the August 43 billion auction. Spain intends to offer in the September auction 7 billion versus 3.5 billion in August.

U.S. President Obama occupies the headlines with his administration's plan to spend 168 billion on various programs to support the economy.
Interestingly, the objective of the proposed increase in tax deductions for research and development amounting to 100 billion dollars is not limited to keeping jobs in the U.S., yet the Obama administration also reportedly plans to invest 50 billion USD in infrastructure, ie roads and railways, which this morning led to the rise of the shares of Asian steelmakers.

Bank of Japan was limited to maintaining low interest rates, which together with the general to resort to safe currencies resulted in the strengthening yen. Japanese Prime Minister opponent, Ozawa, tried before the meeting the bank's current prime minister to push Qana overnight, but the result is no action by the BoJ did not occur. Interest rates have remained surprisingly at a ridiculously low level of 0.10%.As for the other events in Asia, the Australian dollar weakened and thus responds to the behavior of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which in spite of favorable economic data leaves interest rates unchanged, as well as on reports that the Labour Party managed to cling to power because Prime Minister Gillard has secured a majority of one seat. Repeated rate increases (6) led to a sobering Australian property market, which was hot at one time almost to white. The question remains whether it is possible to avoid its collapse, and although consensus remains optimistic in this regard, we take the whole thing look rather more carefully. Overnight published by AIG in the building performance index shows that Australia was in the building to a sharp downturn.

Shares: close-up view
Obama will most likely notify the stimulus package or other investment in infrastructure, which will undoubtedly increase in the short term, risk appetite and causes the stock will head upwards. Such a development would most likely lead in the case of S & P500 to test the level of 1130, which has already been targeting for some time in our medium-term strategy. Notwithstanding the foregoing, we still believe that long-term nature of the fundamental problems that plague the western economies are still far from resolved, and this simply acts as a structural barrier preventing other companies in sustainable growth. Consumers need to oddlužit (like government), and it reflected the weak demand.Poor sales are currently masked achieved higher margins and higher capacity utilization, but sooner or later lead to disappointment over the development proceeds. Contrary to popular expectations still expect that the equities in the S & P500 in 2011 EPS indicator reaching 84-85 USD, which will lead to fair value at the 1174th

Asian stock markets overnight, after several days of strong drew back somewhat, which is not surprising. Note, however, that the shares of steel companies are trading against the trend continues to grow and nourished the hope of a strong recovery in demand in the context of Obama's infrastructure project. We expect this trend to persist until the publication of more detailed information concerning this plan and the time when this plan will take the form of the law. There's nothing like it when you have to hope.

Mads Kofoed, Christian Blaabjerg, Saxo Bank

 Globální online investiční banka

Saxo Bank je globální investiční banka specializující se na online obchodování a investice na mezinárodních finančních trzích. Saxo Bank umožňuje soukromým investorům a institucionálním klientům obchodovat s FX, CFD, cennými papíry, futures, opcemi a dalšími deriváty a poskytuje i profesionální správu portfolia a fondů díky svým online obchodním platformám oceněným řadou různých ocenění.

Více informací na: www.saxobank.cz

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