Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  September 08, 2010 10:21:33

MS - commentary on the revision of Czech GDP for 2Q2010


Final data for GDP yielded 2Q/10 great change - only the specification of 0.2 percentage points to 0.9% q / q, which was also our original estimate (in mid-August).   Growth in 1Q/10 was reduced to a tenth +0.4% q / q. Annual growth to 2.4%, which is 6/10 forecast, the CNB and the also the reason why we thought that there is no need for a rate cut in May. Which is somewhat surprising fact that there was no significant revision (due to strong growth in Germany). One possibility is that it shows up in 3Q/10.

·          Structure I - major review 1Q/10 for household consumption (up from +0.7% q / q to 1.2% q / q), so 1Q/10 year, household consumption has stagnated (original estimate was half a percent decrease).In 2Q/10 consumption also added 0.6%, year on year is already 0.8% higher. It surprised us (in the June forecast, we expect -0.7%) and CNB (the waiting even to -1.4%). It is interesting - and we expect that household consumption rises until year plky (q / q), so this revival came about two quarters before.

·         Structure II - The growth of net exports helped, but less than expected - only 0.4 pp This was due to worsening terms of trade, and partly by a higher contribution from the total investments (which are on imports), which contributed 1.3 percentage points   Total investments were due to higher fixed investment (the year still fell by more than 4%), but due to inventory (-15 billion 2Q/09, 2Q/10 +5 bn).

·          The structure of so much surprise - we expected a smaller contribution of demand from households and higher net exports, otherwise the numbers are right in line with expectations.

·          Impact on monetary policy: the data is evaluated to be slightly on the upside. It's not just the fact that growth is higher than expected CNB as well as structure. Consumption is growing faster than   expected - and it was the weak consumption, which justifies that rates can remain extremely low for a long time. According to our current data (together with a well-paced 3Q/10) will certainly be a welcome argument in the debate on the rates, which surely awaits 4Q/10 CNB.Trinity bankers, who tend to higher rates (Zamrazilová, Janacek, Holman), after today can get to the next party. Still hold the rate increase this year (November).

·          Other developments:growth in the 3Q/10 still quite solid, it can help higher GDP growth in Germany in the 2Q/10. Also, leading indicators still show a good result, certainly around 0.7% -0.8% q / q. Then comes the slowdown - the EMU will soon go the weaker the data, it is reflected in the CR. Another recession, which is now fashionable in the markets, but certainly do not expect. Rather, we expect the correction KD crown above the 25th

      

  Martin Lobotka
Czech Savings Bank, Inc.

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ČS - koment k revizi českého HDP za 2Q2010

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