Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Currencies  |  September 09, 2010 13:22:27

Stress and nerves ...


Overnight interesting development in general, not so much in terms of specific markets or currency pairs, but rather in terms of ideas and conclusions which I reached over a glass of excellent Italian red wine ...

Perhaps the most fascinating aspect of the market at the moment for me is the fact that, yes, people really come back from a long summer holidays and, of course, liquidity and rise again, but in this whole context, it seems that we have a distinct lack of presence, which would really pushed the button again and started a trading fully.What do you think? The explanation is simple - the market is nervous, and in this case it is not nervous anticipation, it's just a real stress and nerves.

Nobody wants to be the first to enter into any real positions in currency pairs, and all this is reflected in recent price movements and news headlines, the market moves.

Trading this week, we started slowly because it was a holiday in the U.S., and next morning we were in the Wall Street Journal read what everyone already knew (but seemingly the last three months conveniently forgotten), so we have a crisis of government bonds, and, world of wonder that was averted when everyone during the summer holidays sunbathing in the sun.

Suddenly, recent increases in risk (not to mention the EURUSD) and stopped completely froze! It seems that the next day someone closed their short positions in shares and overall market begins to prance again. This time, with the S & P pushes the fresh resistance in 1110 and stretches with you, of course, risky currency pairs.

Down Under Currencies currency pairs and generally high beta are in a kind of limbo and it's dance, which may well lead to cervical dislocation. At this point we see no particular direction and I'm afraid it will still take some time before we see any.
Above this market do not control nor bulls nor bears and look at the daily volumes on the foreign exchange and stock markets just confirmed.

So what will happen until then, before anyone really able to press the button? Simply remain in this zone tie-commerce and we will probably try to get something through options rather than commercial.

Options are now cheaper, since volatility is lower and due to the fact that the short / medium-term outlook is rather hazy. It is best to choose a cheap one or a two-month low delta options, sit and wait for some monkey throws the first handful of excrement.

Well, enough of my drunken philosophizing. To this market ...
In the UK, will be released today details of the trade balance and BoE decisions on rates, as we learn from the U.S. weekly data on employment.

My overall view on the market and different levels of currency pairs and did not change my message remains the same as in the past few days. It is worth only AUDUSD. If you are a supporter in strengthening the sales, then this is a great opportunity to trade some options here ... but it will take a few days before taking a sharp turnover ...

Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Advisory and Trading, Saxo Bank

 Globální online investiční banka

Saxo Bank je globální investiční banka specializující se na online obchodování a investice na mezinárodních finančních trzích. Saxo Bank umožňuje soukromým investorům a institucionálním klientům obchodovat s FX, CFD, cennými papíry, futures, opcemi a dalšími deriváty a poskytuje i profesionální správu portfolia a fondů díky svým online obchodním platformám oceněným řadou různých ocenění.

Více informací na: www.saxobank.cz

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