Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Finance  |  September 10, 2010 09:40:48

MS - commentary 09.10 - Hawks show corners, better than expected U.S. data

CR + Region


·           CZ (D-1) Inflation yesterday in line with expectations, 1.9% y / y, or anything special from the structure (fuel, regulated prices + electricity -), all in accordance with the forecast, the CNB.Further development will, however, a higher inflation - this year by the end of the target, then the taxes and further deregulation will push inflation in 2011 to 2.5%. Finally, labor market recovery   household demand, provided that they are not the stronger party neurve duck, help above 0% and demand inflation.

·           CZ (D-1)   Another argument holds that R.Holman higher rates sooner than forecast apparently seriously, his comments yesterday that she is slower than in the past appreciation of the crown. We do not think it should be something striking, especially in 2011-2012, when the CR will grow faster than structurally weakened by EMU (pulled down south). This positive differential in favor of CR will be given greater exposure to the CR on world trade (by Germany) and a smaller number of structural problems that must deal with CR.




·           U.S. (D-1)Yesterday's data for the balance of trade (42.8 billion U.S. dollars) has confirmed a return to normal and suggested that the bad data in June, which then caused a large negative contribution to growth in 2Q/10, it could just be an exception. If confirmed in the coming months, then it will certainly be positive for growth in 3Q/10, which will not be so large negative contribution from IP. It could dispel some fears of another recession, which I got the impression, enough feed the slowdown in 2Q/10.

·U.S. (D-1) and data for new applications for unemployment benefits (451k) came from the lowest 7.10, which further indicates that even the labor market is slowly improving. SO without even came to 376 thousand., Year on year improvement, too. This, together with new jobs in August and previous revisions   (+36 K) or increasing the average working week of shows   and the delayed recovery of the economy. To us it fits into the picture non-recessionary economy.

Martin Lobotka
Czech Savings Bank, Inc.

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ČS - koment 10.9. - jestřábi ukazují růžky, lepší než očekávaná data z USA

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