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Finance  |  September 10, 2010 12:23:06

Reviving the global economy slows, the OECD

Reviving the global economy slows down and does not develop as expected, said a preliminary estimate of economic OECD. It is still not clear whether this slowdown reflects the temporary or long-term factors. Estimation of the G7 growth is expected in the second half of about 1.5% on an annual basis and is lower than the May estimate of 1.75%. Uncertainty is caused by a combination of positive and negative factors, but it is unlikely that we are heading back into recession, says OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan.

If the trend reflected temporary factors, the government should postpone the withdrawal of stimulus measures to only a few months and continue to reduce public expenditure.But if it was a slow and long-term risk of recession, should support further stimulus measures by central banks will keep a long-term low interest rates and continue to buy corporate bonds. OECD does not exclude or delayed plans for fiscal consolidation.

Based on recent data, the OECD provides short term increase in U.S. GDP by 2.0% in Q3 and then by 1.2% in Q4 of the 2010th In Japan expects economic growth in Q3 by 0.7% in Q4 and by 0.6%. Estimated GDP of the euro area based on projected average of the three largest countries of Germany, France and Italy by 0.4% growth in Q3 and 0.6% in Q4.

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