Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
World markets  |  September 13, 2010 10:09:32

The new rules of Basel III to support risk


The regulatory framework of Basel III lived to see the publication and as expected, is much milder. Tier 1 capital ratio of capital required by banks, 7% of equity capital and the cushion of 2.5%. This requirement, banks must comply no later than 2019.During this time they have also continuously meet certain sub-milestones to meet before they will be unable to pay dividends, however, not be forced to raise cash. This step should be this morning and maybe even tomorrow springboard for growth stocks in particular the financial sector.

This will be an interesting week in terms of economic indicators, only a slow start. U.S. budget report for July and Swedish Unemployment numbers just are not exciting reading. But that's irrelevant anyway because in the credits outweigh the Basel III.

Wholesale inventories, which represent unsold goods at an intermediate stage between manufacturers and retailers in July rose by as much as mom and 1.3% versus 0.4% expected. Wholesale inventories are part of all stocks in the calculation of GDP, which means that Friday's report was an economic activity as measured by the GDP in the third quarter, a small booster injection. After two weak months, when wholesale sales declined in May and June by 0.5%, which was also an increase (0.6%).

Robust data from China and a relatively modest rules of Basel III to support the growth of risk appetite. Industrial production exceeded the consensus expected 13%, while annual growth in August showed a 13.9%.Similarly, in August increased the rate of inflation to 3.5%. Weekend speculation really suggest that China could raise its reference rate to cool the economy. It has happened, which proves that Chinese politicians still prefer to grow.

Canadian jobs in August after a surprise drop in July of 9300 jobs again reflected upwards. Labor market once again exceeded expectations, he noted the mouth of r jobs of 35,800 (consensus: 30 000), even though unemployment increased slightly from 8, 0% to 8.1%. However, this was due to a higher level of participation in the labor market (from 67.3 to 67.4). Report negative side is that most jobs were created in education.

We expect the European markets opened this morning by 1% above. This is clearly due to less strict rules governing the capital structure of banks than the supposed dreaded Basel III. It remains to answer the question whether it can be taken as an indicator of the actual state of the current bank balance sheets. If so, then it does not look so rosy, also due to the fact that banks will have to modify the entire 8 years defending. In the case of Basel III, the Europeans have chosen a similar path as the Japanese. Instead of the Big Bang balance sheet restructuring will take place in successive steps, which ensures sufficient time for proper consolidation and acquisition of additional capital.

From a technical point of view we are still trapped in a narrow band and head to the upper boundary.


Christian Blaabjerg, Saxo Bank

 Globální online investiční banka

Saxo Bank je globální investiční banka specializující se na online obchodování a investice na mezinárodních finančních trzích. Saxo Bank umožňuje soukromým investorům a institucionálním klientům obchodovat s FX, CFD, cennými papíry, futures, opcemi a dalšími deriváty a poskytuje i profesionální správu portfolia a fondů díky svým online obchodním platformám oceněným řadou různých ocenění.

Více informací na: www.saxobank.cz

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