Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Finance  |  September 13, 2010 15:16:53

Berner (MS): Consumers are not packed to the U.S. economy will accelerate next year


According to Morgan Stanley strategist Richard Berner American consumers reduce their debt and create a greater financial reserves than expected, allowing them next year will give more room for spending, which would raise domestic demand and thus encourage more growth in its economy.

Repayment of debts under the "applicable earnings" in Q1 fell to 12.46% from their peak in 2008 at 13.96%. Thirty-year average for this indicator stands at 12.09%. According to Berner this indicator by the end of the year falls somewhere between 11 and 12%. More money to spend in 2011 will help the U.S. economy, according to his opinion, to grow at 3%. In Q2 this year, GDP grew at a rate of 1.6%.
Total consumer debt fell for the seventh time in 2Q in line for the final 11.7 trillion dollars, which is 6.5% below vrchlem in 2008. Number of violations of the conditions of repayment fell in Q2 for the first time since 2006 to 11.4% versus 11.9% in 1Q.

Amortization of credit cards in July fell below 10% for the first time since April 2009, amortization of loans, which may be deemed unenforceable, fell in July to 9.3% in June compared to 10.3%.

The market for Bloomberg survey expected for next year with GDP growth of 2.5%.

The ratio of debt to income in 1Q values ??reached 119%. In 2007, the beginning of the crisis it was 129%. 30-year average is approximately at 90%.

The savings rate in late July reached levels of 5.9% versus 4.2% in June.The average for the first 7 months of this year was 5.8% which is above the level of 5.2% in 1995, when markets recover from one of the stock and real estate downturns.

Consumer spending in the last 30 years, grew on average by 3% annually.
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Berner (MS): Spotřebitelé to nezabalili, ekonomika USA bude příští rok akcelerovat

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