Commerzbank (Commerzbank)
World markets  |  October 01, 2010 13:14:56

Weekly 39th Week - nevýraný 3Q, macro indicates improvement in the situation


Last week, Q3 was in Europe and the United States a different course and different as it was actually around September. While European stock markets fell during the trading U.S. indexes are frequently moved during the day in positive values ??and profits lost to the end of trading.For the whole month was reported on the old continent markets gains to 5%, but the S & P500 rose by an impressive 8.8%. It does this September exceptional because it is statistically the worst month in terms of equity markets. This growth was in August and the subsequent decline rozplývání fear of coming the second floor of the world economy. This is indeed confirmed by the data from this week. On Monday and Wednesday indicators have been published confirming the good condition of the Chinese economy, which is finally becoming a driver of global growth. But the U.S. economy appears to be improving. Thursday showed a further decline in applications for unemployment benefits when the new arrival was expected instead of 453 000 460 000. Also in Q2 GDP indicator was revised slightly upward due to higher consumption, which is crucial for the U.S. economy.

The price of gold reaching historic highs, but suggests that investors are not yet absolutely certain further development and are looking for greater certainty, you are just in gold, because the prices of government bonds borrowers have reached an incredible level. Concern certainly helped in the development of the Irish banking system. The Irish government said it is ready to "pour" into troubled banks, especially Allied Irish and Anglo Irish, another 50 billion euros, which is more than a third of budget revenues for 2009. Even so, Ireland does not need to dig far into the newly created European stabilization fund, because half the amount is able to cover the pension fund reserves. But despite the fact that these reserves will buy some time to escape the island state with 4.5 million inhabitants drastic budget cuts.The advantage is that the markets also see that Ireland is not Greece.

The euro continued to strengthen against the dollar, when he helped in the growth of a report that European banks drew less liquidity from the ECB.

In the corporate sector has played an active role again Hewlett-Packard. First pleased improved market outlook for the next year and finally fell yesterday revoked Hurd name a successor. The choice fell on the ex-head of SAP's Apotheker, but his appointment caused some doubts.

In the next few days may prove what is the next evolution of the markets. Either will be in October after a good sign shines in sales, or vice versa confirms the improving conditions in the economy and free resources to begin to move in stocks.

Mary Kolovratová, an analyst at Commerzbank

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