Dealingové oddělení (Citfin - Finanční trhy a.s.)
Currencies  |  October 04, 2010 11:12:10

Week on the foreign exchange market (October 4, 2010)



Key dates last week

Germany: adjusted unemployment rate for September fell to 7.5%

Eurozone: Economic sentiment index rose to 103.2 points, not more than 2.5 years

euro area: European Commission proposes sanctions 0.2% of GDP for the euro area with the problem of public finances

Poland: NBP left the key rate to 3.5%

Hungary: NBM kept the key rate to 5.25%

Euro in the past week: crown strengthened from 24.60 CZK / EUR below 24.40 CZK / EUR

Picture of trading last week was completely different than the last few weeks. In the first half of the week crown strengthened to below 24.50 CZK / EUR in the next few days look to below 24.40 CZK / EUR.

Last week was published the minutes of meetings, the CNB, which shows that central bankers do not mind the strengthening of the past in large koruny.v strengthening domestic currency hit just CNB interventions. This scenario collapses. The meeting of central bankers that any further appreciation of the koruna should not be a problem for economic growth.

Another reason for the strengthening of the crown is certainly the fall of the dollar. The last week has weakened by more than 2.5 cents to 1.3750 USD / EUR.

Key dates this week

Tuesday Germany: retail sales for August

Tuesday Germany: PMI for September

Wednesday Eurozone: GDP per 2.Q.2010,   final figures

Thursday Germany: Industrial production for August

Thursday CR: retail sales for August

Thursday CR: industrial production for August

Thursday CR: construction output for August

Thursday CR: Foreign trade in August

Friday CR: unemployment for September

CZK / EUR - view next month

This week we expect the number of reports from our regional neighbors. Significant effect on the crown but can not be expected. The Crown has already traded several weeks in a much narrower band than the surrounding currency, which is to some extent due to its low interest rate and the resulting low attractiveness for investors. Higher volatility can be expected by the end of the year when sharpens debate on setting interest rates. But I still expect a shift to weaker levels of the crown, we assume that the attack was the end of 25.00 CZK / EUR.

CZK / EUR - view the end of

The end of the year is already approaching. With an expression of central bankers at the turn of the year, we expect intense debate about rising interest rates. It should also affect the Czech crown, which has in recent weeks, an extremely stable. Growth rates, we expect that at the turn of the year, it should break away from its lethargy, and stronger support for the control levels. By the end of the year, expect even a slight correction to 25.00 CZK / EUR in the beginning of next year would no longer be able to appreciate again and reach the current level of 24.50 CZK / EUR.



Key dates last week

U.S.: GDP per second Q. according to final data increased by 1.7%, originally expected to grow by 1.6%
U.S.: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September rose to 60.4 points, expected to drop to 55.5 points from 56.7 points

U.S.: Consumer confidence in September fell to 48.5 points, waiting for a better result

Dollar in the past week: crown strengthened from 18.15 CZK / USD under the 17.75 CZK / USD


Dollar at all last week failed. Not only weakened the technical level of 1.3510 U.S. / EUR, but lost on, and its low was at $ 1.3765 / €.

The dollar has weakened in recent days, mainly because if there is need for further quantitative easing, the Fed will then print new dollars to support the economy. This has meant selling dollars from investors and buying riskier assets, among them the Czech crown.

Key dates this week

Monday the U.S.: corporate orders for August

Monday U.S.: rozjednané home sales for August

Tuesday the U.S.: ABC consumer confidence for October

Thursday the U.S.: Consumer credit for August

Friday the U.S.: Unemployment in September

Friday the U.S.: Change in the number of jobs outside agriculture for September

Friday the U.S.: Change in employment in the private sector for September

CZK / USD - outlook for the near month

The dollar continued last week in losses against all major currencies. This is due to the improving situation on the markets, when investors spilled some of the money in riskier assets, and better data from Europe, which supported growth in the euro. Another direction of trading is quite uncertain. From a technical point of view, but the dollar poised for further losses. In case of further dollar losses, the crown could attack the border 17.50 CZK / USD.

CZK / USD - view the end of

Do not expect the dollar to end the year substantially fade away. Markets will continue to debate the fragility of global economic recovery and will flash by reports of problems with public finances in many countries. Speculation of a rise in interest rates to affect trading in the course of 2011.The situation is likely to end dramatically change course and we expect a wide range from 18.00 to 20.00 CZK / USD.

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