Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Finance  |  October 05, 2010 10:00:50

MS - commentary 10.05 - Polish inflation will be OK, the budget of Greece, the macro from the U.S., Japanese rates


Region

·      Polish central bank governor Belka said that inflation should stand in the twelve-month term in the target zone banks (2.5% plus / minus 1 percentage point). Should any risks appeared deviation of inflation from the target, the central bank intervenes. The revival of the Polish economy is slow, he said, giving the chance for its long duration.Another central banker Bratkowski, however, thinks it is high time to raise rates preemptively, thereby preventing and potential inflationary pressures.

·    Currencies in the region yesterday moved quite different ways, when the crown op fluctuated most of the day in the vicinity of 24.45 in the evening and weakened slightly to 25.55. Zloty and the forint strengthened slightly at first, but the afternoon returned to baseline levels. In the afternoon, again zaúřadovala nervousness of investors, as best illustrated by developments in equity markets.Today we can expect more nervous trading continued with the pressure against regional currencies.

World

·    Greece yesterday published a closely watched draft budget. The proposal is ambitious, is intended to decrease the budget deficit this year from 7.8% to 7.0% of GDP, even though the EU and the IMF called for only 7.6% of GDP. Yet it represents an increase of total debt at 142.2% of GDP. Reducing the deficit is to be achieved through a combination of further improvement in tax collection and additional taxes (property tax increase on certain products and services that are now below 11%, non-profit tax for businesses). Details of the draft budget will be carefully studied, because many investors still have strong doubts about the ability of Greece to meet its obligations.

·    Factory orders in the U.S. fell in August by 0.5%, mainly due to traffic engineering. Adjusted for the effect of orders grew by 0.9%. The market did not react too, because the information had already largely from data on orders for durable goods.

·    Ongoing sales of existing homes surprised by a positive growth of 4.3% year on year but still fall by 20.1%. The situation on the housing market and despite the positive surprise remains one of the worst weaknesses of the U.S. economy.

·    The Japanese central bank has vowed to keep rates near zero until deflation pass. In addition, increasing its balance sheet to stimulate flagging recovery. Creates fund a 5 bln yen (60 billion USD), which is buying up government bonds and other assets.

·    Moody's examines Ireland's rating due to its possible reduction.

·    Today will be especially interesting U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index. The market should be very sensitive to any weakness.  

Ľuboš Mokráš
Czech Savings Bank

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