World markets  |  October 07, 2010 16:28:12

Strong in September backed by the promise of liquidity / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: from the 4th week 10th 2010


In the past month have experienced the world's major stock indices decent growth. At first glance seemed to lag behind the European markets, EuroStoxx 50 when he joined less than 5% compared with ten per cent rise in Japan's Nikkei 225, or even the U.S. Nasdaq rise by 14%! These differences are somewhat reduced or even offset when looking for currency developments. In the same period, underwent a rapid weakening U.S. dollar, the euro price when expressed in dollars increased by 10%. Slightly fewer (8%) must pay extra person who wants to buy the euro against the yen as the situation has been a month ago. Like the time when the euro was the target of sales and the theme was weakness on the periphery of the Eurozone countries, was long gone. Attention is now focused on the actions of individual blocks in the monetary field when trying to solve their economic problems. And Eurozone current restraint is probably the cause of strength of the euro.

aJaponsko trying to intervene in the foreign exchange market to weaken its currency to support its exports. U.S. Fed promises that if the economy does not flourish, it will buy government bonds to further reduce their revenues into the economy, adding more liquidity. In such a scenario, even bad news is good news for stocks because it will mean even greater purchases by the Fed. Obviously this logic applies in the current situation in the U.S. market - good news when the shares rise, the poor are unable to bring down, but keep him even greater fall of the dollar in anticipation of large-scale purchases by the Fed. Concerns about the extent of such purchases in the U.S. reflects more and more new highs on the price of gold (a favorite hiding place before the devaluation of paper money) in dollar terms, while its price in euros and Czech crowns remain "calm".Investors seem convinced of the massive Fed intervention and pushing prices higher. For further development will be important to monitor the position of Fed officials, however, will more clearly at the beginning of November when the meeting takes place. The current position of central authority but rather to help when things go wrong, so the shares in the near future at least in nominal terms, if the position does not change, not decline, movements in the monetary field may be significant.

Roman Skalicky, LUTHERUS

Opinions of experts on future developments in selected foreign markets monitored by indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) over one month and a half years, a week from 4 10th The 2010th


Experts estimate for the period of 1 month

Pointer
Hodn.
First 10th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
1 126,70
1 146,67
1137
1.77
1120 - 1190
5
A
Dow Jones (USA)
10 829,68
10 827,50
10 792
-0.02
10 550 - 11 170
3
3
NASDAQ (USA)
2 370,75
2 387,00
2363
0.69
2 300 - 2 500
3
3
FTSE 100 (V.Brit.)
5 592,90
5 625,00
5562
0.57
5460 - 5900
3
3
DAX (Germany)
6 211,34
6 222,33
6201
0.18
6030 - 6470
2
4
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
9 404,23
9 541,50
9472
1.46
9250 - 9900
3
3


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
First 10th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
1 126,70
1 161,83
1167
3.12
1 030 - 1 300
3
3
Dow Jones (USA)
10 829,68
10 805,33
10 891
-0.22
9400 - 11 750
3
3
NASDAQ (USA)
2 370,75
2 335,67
2397
-1.48
1990 - 2580
3
3
FTSE 100 (V.Brit.)
5 592,90
5 586,00
5663
-0.12
4800 - 6190
3
3
DAX (Germany)
6 211,34
6 209,83
6280
-0.02
5600 - 6700
3
3
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
9 404,23
9 553,33
9650
1.59
8600 - 10 300
3
3

Comparison:

Look also to the estimates made ??last and before last week.
All estimates can be seen in the section Expert BIG .


Reviews carried out in this week:

  • Ondrej Moravanský - Cyrrus
  • Libor Bucek, John Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlin
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager INVEST CP
  • Charles handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Roman Skalicky - LUTHERUS
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" the value of the observed indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimation was based.Using this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is surrounded by the size of a structured set of assumptions and "Interval Estimates" indicates the minimum and maximum estimate file. Columns "Increase / decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index in the period considered, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are non-binding form of views with regard to the outlook for the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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Silné září podpořené příslibem likvidity / BIG EXPERT - zahraniční trhy: týden od 4. 10. 2010

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