Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Finance  |  October 11, 2010 11:01:17

Meetings of the IMF and World Bank failed to resolve the currency war


The prospect of further quantitative easing by the Fed caused the Friday ride a roller coaster when the data and comments moved the market here and there. Before the publication of data on employment change in non-agricultural sector were the main entrances comments Fed officials R. Fisher and T. Hoenig, which threw a shadow over the prospects of the market that the QEII is a "done deal", which gave a boost dollar. Other Fed officials J.Bullard also contributed to the expression, which was less dovish tone (the U.S. economy has not slowed enough to necessarily require further quantitative easing), and the dollar continued to strengthen nervous.

Everything has changed after the announcement reports employment outside agriculture, the key figure showed a surprising drop of 95 thousand. jobs (compared to the expected -5 thousand.). This again brought to the forefront of consideration of adoption at the November meeting QEII Fed and the dollar has vacated the position and brought up to 10měsíčním lows. EUR managed to regain the level of 1.39 and a member of the ECB's Wellink N. IMF chief economist and O. Blanchard noted that the strengthening euro is not a concern. Another voice heard from the boss area J.-C.Juncker, who said he was happy that the euro was given to the 1.40 level, but over the weekend said that the USD, EUR and JPY shall be free floating and that none of the countries should have access to unilateral interventions. USDJPY continued to decline and ended the week near the level at which the BoJ zaintervenovala 15th September. Currencies of commodity block benefited from the rebound in gold prices and oil.

Weekend appointments MMF/G7 not bring any solution to global consensus or escalation of currency "wars" or tension, which was the theme often repeated before this meeting. U.S. and Europe continue to put pressure on China to strengthen yuan, China resolutely but those strikes reflects and highlights the growing debt free and monetary policies of developed countries that contribute to global imbalances. In the final communiqué sounded vague commitment to "work on a more balanced global growth model."As a result, the dollar this week began weakening again, jumps at the start of the test failed and a new ten-month lows versus the index. Activity was somewhat muted but holiday in Japan (and the prospect of the upcoming holiday in the U.S.), yet it seems that in the short term pressure on the dollar will continue.

Asian Trading was quiet, also from Europe come almost no data, only data disclosures will be the Norwegian consumer price index and producer price index. The U.S. has a holiday, the U.S. session thus carries no date, but pay attention to signs of Dudley W. and J. Yellen of the Fed.

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