Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Currencies  |  November 30, 2010 14:31:17

Nearest pivotal level for EUR / USD is 1.295


Solar panels are still increasing. Representatives of the solar business in the fight against additional taxation of their profits claimed that connects more than 1200

Solar panels are still increasing. Representatives of the solar business in the fight against additional taxation of their profits claimed that connects more than 1200

Solar panels are still increasing. Representatives of the solar business in the fight against additional taxation of their profits claimed that connects more than 1200 MW. You acknowledge that the panels will be more. At the same time trying to convince senators to reject additional taxation in photovoltaics. If they fail, they will come in future years by 12 billion.

Last month was my call for a retreat from short positions in USD heard, so I would be in today's article I looked at the events that led to, and subsequently to the situation at the end of the month, year and also at intraday developments.

For several weeks prior to confirmation of the second wave of quantitative easing, I'm constantly talking about a shift in strategy in U.S. dollars, since the net speculative short positions in U.S. dollars soared to historic highs. I have argued that the mere arrival of this event will be the catalyst that causes the turnover of this trend. Ultimately, I (successfully) sought to ensure that the net short positions in U.S. dollars have been reduced and the market has returned an overall shopping trend.Now a month has passed and of course we have witnessed a dramatic move in EURUSD, when the rapid turnover of a maximum of 1.4280 / 5 1.3065 at yesterday's low (negligible decrease of approximately 8.5%). Other currency pairs recorded similar movements, such as the AUDUSD wrote in less than a month to 6%.

You can argue that the eurozone is facing serious problems. It was rescued in Ireland (even if only temporarily, since the end of January could be a time bomb exploded in the form of dissolution of parliament and elections). In the foreground is Portugal, which only overshadowed by Spain - which the politicians for trying to double the Stabilization Fund (another 750 billion). All the while we know that it will not be enough. Only the red-hot train, which would still have to - Germany - still struggle to keep afloat the rest of Europe (of the French, or rather not mention).
Meanwhile, the Australians clearly benefited from předprodaného USD, China raised reserve requirements (in order to reduce the potential demand for commodities) and by the end of it probably will do again - it is a total break with a commodity bubble and seemingly more moderate position of the central bank. Currency depreciation almost glaringly obvious.
Well ... So what next? Today marks the end of the month. Last 6 months mean net purchase of USD (it is one of the main reasons why today's article is longer). Today probably will not be different - not important enough that the market could significantly affect thirsting for liquidity. Quickly coming to the end of the year and people ask me where I think EURUSD will end and how it will look on the market at the beginning of the new year.

Although I am one of nejpřesvědčenějších bears in relation to the euro, I'm pretty sure that by 31 December will be a significant deviation from the level 1.2900 / 1.3000. Of course, if the acknowledged bankruptcy of either Spain or Portugal, this scenario is somewhat outside the euro and the sharp slide to 1.2750. The decline may be deeper, but has a lower probability, while the chances of a quick return to the 1.2900 / 1.3000 is much larger.
The reasoning is relatively simple. Net short positions in U.S. dollars have now been reduced and practically almost completely closed and the market must decide whether to start the new year opened a strategic long position in USD or leave things as they are. I prefer a scenario under which the market after a difficult year, ready to let sleeping dogs lie (at least for now), and therefore there will not be cleaned buyers USD, EURUSD will breathe a little.Line in the sand is now the 1.2950 level, which is closest to the pivot level. If to its permanent closure and breaking below it, probably at this pair will see a much larger decrease ... but barely.
This phenomenon is not restricted to the EURUSD, but should rather form an absolute basis for all significant pairs with USD at stake. Likewise, hard times will also exchange experience with a higher beta, or. commodity currency, but eventually they too would have to respect this emerging paradigm shift.

In the remaining approximately three weeks of trading market will be completely under the influence of newspaper headlines and the data it will have very little (if any) impact. Quote Dick Cheney, which is much like my former colleague, the well-known concerns known and diverts us from the unknown known.In this case, this means that we know in what state is now in most world economies, and recent data for almost the entire year of data does not tell us anything we do not know. Nervous, illiquid market will be dancing to the rhythm of any breaking news. Willingness to take risks, risk aversion, the mood in the next month will turn upside down three times a day, so as usual helmet on his head!
And for those who are still awake nechoulí somewhere in the corner, on the contrary Entire eager to sit at their keyboards, I have my view of how it will unfold today.
As for currency pairs, GBPUSD start, which should now find a decent base in the form of temporary support at 1.5480, while the path from here to 1.5360 would be very tough, it is unlikely that we got there today.Poohlížejte after buying on dips in anticipation of short and ugly attacks up, while the ceiling level is 1.5660.
USDJPY breath beginning to happen, but it is not a course where I wanted to be right now.

If AUDUSD traders will probably sell in the ascent and during the day would be the upper limit of range 0.9720 / 30 and the movements should be run out at 0.9680, while in the coming days, expect a deeper decline. On the daily chart creates an interesting head and shoulders formation (by the way not unlike that of spot gold).
USDCAD remains trapped in a narrow band, and it is also necessary to operate with him. Ceiling is 1.0250, while the lower limit of the first level of 1.0150.
EURGBP first tested the 0.8410 level and nicely reflected from it, but the theme remains the same and I would probably prefer to give rise in sales, especially to the level of 0.8530.

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Nejbližší pivotní úroveň pro EUR/USD je 1,295

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