Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Commodities  |  December 06, 2010 10:37:06

Commodities: After correction back in shape

Global economic recovery through better macro data from the U.S. shows further signs of improvement last week and it helped to grow primarily cyclical commodities.

European debt problems persist, but the risk of infection is reduced when the European Central Bank last week began aggressively buying Irish and Portuguese government bonds. With the spread decreased compared with German bonds by more than one percent and improved mood among investors is such.

The euro was in November under selling pressure against the dollar and depreciated by nine percent. This decline, although proved to be wiped out part of the losses, but how it will happen, indicates the ability of the Eurozone vybruslit problems.

As for commodities, the end of the year is always a period when various analytical houses publish forecasts for the year 2011 and most of them sees another year of strong growth as a commodity. Cyclical commodities like energy and basic materials should increase profits with how the global recovery will continue, will also provide important support for the U.S. stock market.

China has undoubtedly stepped on the brake economic growth to prevent further growth of inflation, which is currently on an annual basis 8 percent. It also adopted measures to reduce the speculative bubble in commodities. However, whether these measures will have a significant impact on the demand for basic materials, it remains to be seen.

Reuters Jefferies CRB Index added 3.8 per cent last week, and deleted almost two thirds   November's decline. Since the beginning of the year is plus ten percent. Managed to energy and commodities   basic materials, but the highest gains scored cotton, silver, and wheat. Natural gas has set for strong growth of the previous period and the pause ended last week with a slight loss.


Gold repudiate recent 100 dollar correction and is back to 1400 dollars. And it is relatively close to the maximum 1425 dollar price of gold which reached three weeks ago. Change in correlation with the development of the dollar is evident across commodities. The markets were able to grow despite the strengthening dollar. Due to the price of gold in euros to reach new highs.


Chinese funds permission to invest in gold ETF funds raised enthusiasm. This measure will allow investors from Greater China, who face negative interest rates and fear of higher inflation, investing in gold.

Copper also filled the headlines when he scored the highest gain since July. Growth was driven by concerns about reducing the supply of copper for the year 2011 for the U.S. economic recovery, which is after China's second largest consumer of copper worldwide. Growth rods are also reports that a single trader holds at the London Metal Exchange inventories more than half.

Oil also prospered, cold weather increased demand. Investors leads to the conclusion that energy prices will rise in coming months, so top up long positions. Global economic recovery, particularly in the United States, generally start to lower unusually high inventory levels.

WTI Crude oil is back in a relatively narrow band, where there is more than a year. The reality is lagging behind the expectations of the future. As we approach the year 2011 and most economies, with the exception of few countries in Europe, improving, it seems that expectations are starting to meet with reality. The curve for future contracts with the flattened last week and it seems that this could help the current trading range break.

For the first time in two years, above $ 90 a barrel Brent crude traded the North. Freezing weather and economic recovery supported the demand. Just last month extended a reasonable price for OPEC oil to 90 dollars and came to the conclusion that it would be better to increase production in a timely manner.

Price of wheat has added 11 percent last week. To blame is to reduce the inventory of the highest quality wheat. Quality and quantity of crops in Australia, the fourth world producer, thanks to heavy rains fell, and vice versa drought in the U.S. may negatively winter wheat crop noted. As a result of increased humidity may be lower quality feed wheat to the level of quality for grinding.

The table below shows the trends for 2010. By the end of the year just missing less than a month and developments in this year determined the uncertainty about economic recovery and on the weather.

Ole S. Hansen, Saxo Bank

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