Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Finance  |  December 13, 2010 09:40:54

MS - commentary 13.12 - Weekly reboot: rich macro, currency


O        Macro data: This week in the U.S. substantially more data than the last. Right now we have important data on retail sales. The market should be very sensitive to this information in both directions.PPI should not have been so critical, but should the expected decline in annual growth, it could increase speculation on further quantitative easing. But rather a surprise waiting up for commodities. On Monday, the FOMC meeting takes place, will follow the statement after the meeting and its implications for the duration and extent of quantitative easing. More significant changes from the previous statement nesčekáme. The impact on the market should therefore be relatively limited. In the middle of continuing inflationary CPI figures. Still very low growth rates recorded and Fed quantitative easing, it is also the reason why this figure should be sledovanější than l last year. Industrial production should confirm continued moderate growth, without much impact on trading.For building permits should be continued stagnation at very low levels, but the market is expected to be pleased with it. Philadelphia Fed Index and the Leading Index should confirm the relatively slow growth.

O        FX and FI: The dollar will probably continue to fluctuations around an 1.33. The distrust of the euro area would help him, concerns about U.S. economic harm. Revenue growth begins to overshoot the impression, however, does not mean that he had to stop.The current situation is such that it can easily get very essence of the ten-year bond is up over 4%, we then just as quickly returned to below 3% ...



O        Macro data: In Europe we also have quite a bit of data. The most interesting will be leading indicators of economic activity (IFO. ZEW and PMI indices). They all should acknowledge a very solid performance, especially in Germany.

O        FI: The situation is very similar to the U.S., also threatens to further increase sales revenues due to market sentiment ..


CEE region

O        Macro data: Most data this week will be in Poland, will be especially interesting in inflation, which we expect will remain on the increased value at the end of the year, probably a tenth the percentage adds.Central bank decisions, however, by us at this moment does not affect, since it remains vigilant and will closely monitor the development mainly of the zloty - held before the end of the year (hike) will be only too sharply if the zloty weakened. Then, even industrial production, it should maintain its solid performance, we have observed the last few months. Finally, the weaker zloty and rising domestic demand should mean further expansion of trade gap will be one of the reasons why and the current account deficit remains profound.

O        FI and FX: Although the fundamental reasons that are now trendy crown weakens, an important psychological threshold will be around 25.5. These values ??could be attractive for speculative short EURCZK. Regional currencies would generally be more and more move into the "Christmas mode" when it should begin to show less liquidity and increased volatility associated with operations at the end of the year and much less with news and data. Zloty could help the new agreement with the EC, according to which exclude costs associated with the reformed pension system, the total debt and deficit, which will significantly improve the state of Polish public finances.

John Krajčová
Czech Savings Bank, Inc.

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