Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Finance  |  December 16, 2010 12:14:46

There are no bears for emerging markets - investors overpay fundamentals


According to statistics, individual investors are now pouring into the emerging markets (EM), the most money since 2007. Progress on them is the biggest rally in 16 years superbýčími estimates supported by record growth in the next year, from 3 the world's largest banks.

Last, when inflows into EM reached similar levels dropped to MSCI Emerging Markets within 3 months by about 11%. The index value indicates that firms on average traded at twice the net asset value and 4% higher compared to developed markets index MSCI World.

Hero of David Harris Associates, which was named Morningstar Manager magazine decade of international equity funds, says that the current state is for investors to look very hard EM true fundamental value, but this leads to "overpaying" their investments.His 6miliardový Oakmark International Fund, one of the very successful investment funds, reducing the share of investment in EM from 20% at the end of the usual 90ých years to the current 4%. The main reason is the concern that China and India raise their interest rates, along with Thailand and Brazil will increase taxes for foreign investors. Diversion of the Fund from EM is inconsistent with the view of "bull" superbanks UBS and Citigroup. In his opinion, the connection of economic growth with the growth of stock markets always clear. Fund shares especially now favors U.S. companies increasingly exported to emerging markets. Such companies include Coca-Cola and Colgate with a large share of operating profit (approx. 50%) generated by the EM.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index a raise since March 2009 by 136%. This year's growth slowed to around 13%. It is expected that GDP will grow EM next year's total by 6.4% compared with growth of 2.2% for developed economies. The share of government debt in the total GDP while the EM averages only about 37% versus 101% in developed economies, deficits in state finances, then only 2.9% versus 6.7% HD. Návratovost EM equity firms this year increased by about 14% versus 11% in the developed world.

According to EPFR EM agencies in the last 3 months 12 mld.USD generally targeted pockets of private investors, the highest since 4Q2007.
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