Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Finance  |  December 17, 2010 09:42:38

MS - commentary 17.12 - Mixed macro from the U.S., the ECB, Ireland rating

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·           (PL)Today will be released in Poland, industrial production, it should maintain its solid performance, observe that since the beginning of this year - after a little hesitation last month, growth was again close to double-digit figures, at least that's what PMI indexes show.




·           (EMU) The ECB yesterday announced that from 29 December, a rise in the ECB's capital by 5mld. EUR 10.76 billion in the overall reason is to protect the bank in case of losses associated with the purchase of risky government bonds. According to the statement, he asked for this step, the current volatile situation in the markets and increased credit risk. Another reason is the sheer size of the financial sector, which increased significantly.

·           (EMU) The final data for inflation in November was only yesterday confirmed the original estimate to 1.9%. Yesterday even set PMI indices - the production was slightly better than, expected, then again in the service a little weaker, but still holds securely over the border of recession and therefore confirmed the ongoing recovery.

·           (U.S.) yesterday released new home construction in the U.S. showed 3.9% growth to 555 000, which is slightly better than expected 550tis. Was also revised figure for the previous month and from 519 to 534tis. Number of building permits fell to the contrary, the lowest value in the last 20 months, 4% m / m to 530 thousand, while the market expected to grow on 560tis.

·           (U.S.) Philadelphia Fed on the contrary, much better than expected, which is positive as it shows that the recovery continues and prospects for the U.S. economy in coming quarters are also not bad. The market also pleased with the number of first unemployment benefits last week in line with median market fell by 3tis. the 420tis. The index of leading today is expected relatively strong growth, the result it could be slightly worse due to a shift and increased slope of the yield curve.

·           (U.S.) Congress yesterday approved an extension of Bush tax cuts (until 2012) - which is generally expected. Also still to continue the payment of extended unemployment benefits, or reduced payroll tax, depreciation and investment. Impact: negative for bonds (more debt) for positive action (support for the economy).

·           (EMU) Moody's rating further reduced Ireland from Aa2 to Baa1 with negative outlook. Also threatened by reducing the rating of Greece by several degrees (and it is already on junk).

John Krajčová
Czech Savings Bank, Inc.

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