Dealingové oddělení (Citfin - Finanční trhy a.s.)
Markets  |  December 20, 2010 12:15:18

Week on the foreign exchange market (20.12.2010)


Key dates last week

CR: V. Tomšík not preclude the future movement of rates in both directions

CR: E. Zamrazilová sees no compelling reasons for increasing rates, but rates may not stay under it to a minimum

CR: by Hampl from the CNB's next rate move in both directions possible

CR: industrial producer prices in November rose by 0.5% mom and 2.7% year on year

CR: import price index in October rose by 3.8% and export prices unchanged

Euro in the past week: crown at the end of the week has weakened over 25.20 CZK / EUR

Dealing with the crown was quiet again last week. The course is held in close proximity to 25.15 CZK / EUR. At the end of the week at 25.25 koruna weakened. CZK / EUR. Developments in the region was mixed. While the crown has stagnated or even slightly weakened, the zloty with the forint strengthened. Most of the regional currencies strengthened just Hungarian forint, which gained due to expectations of higher interest rates, which is scheduled for today.

The interest rates in the last week expressed some bankers from the CNB. Their statement but did not give any clear indication when the rates go up. Crown, in the next few days could affect tomorrow's vote of confidence in government. In the event that the government did not obtain the confidence, it would be a negative impetus for investors. Censure would have delayed the introduction of important reforms.  

Key dates this week

Monday Hungary: Central bank decides on interest rates

Wednesday Poland: central bank decides on interest rates

Wednesday CR: The central bank decides on interest rates

Wednesday Hungary: Retail sales for October

Thursday Hungary: Foreign Trade in October

Thursday Poland: unemployment rate for November

Thursday Poland: Retail sales for November

CZK / EUR - view next month

Crown leaves developments in the region virtually at rest. Remains the most stable currency in the region. This is probably the low interest rates compared to interest in the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint, and this does not hold her attractive to investors.
What the crown in the coming months may affect the potential spill-over from Ireland's debt to other European countries (Portugal and Spain), which would further increase the risk aversion and the Crown would have little to lose. Continue to expect the domestic currency is maintained in a wider band around 25 koruna border.

CZK / EUR - early 2011 views

In early 2011, volatility is likely to increase not Czech crown. The expected increase in interest rates, thanks to stable inflation pushes up the second half of 2011. Nevertheless, we assume that the situation on the markets to calm down early and the Crown could head back to 24.70 CZK / EUR.


Key dates last week

Germany: ZEW index rose in December to 4.3 points more than expected

Germany: IFO business climate index rose in December to 109.9 points, expected to fall to 109.0 points

Eurozone: Industrial production in October increased by 6.9% to 7.6% expected

Eurozone: Consumer price index for November rose by 0.1% mom, down by 1.9% as expected

Eurozone: Moody's rating review Spain

Eurozone: Moody's rating snířila Ireland on five levels to Baa1 from Aa2

U.S.: U.S. retail sales in November rose by 0.8% mom, more than expected

U.S.: Fed by the ongoing economic recovery is too slow to reduce unemployment

U.S.: Fed confirms the commitment arising from the QE2 to purchase bonds for USD 600 billion

U.S.: Consumer prices in November rose by 0.1% mom, down by 1.1% are higher

USA: index of industrial activity in New York improved to 10.6 points, better than expected
U.S.: number of new applications for unemployment benefits fell to 420 thousand., Better than expected, the number of continuing claims rose to 4,135 thousand., More than expected
U.S.: Philadelphia Fed index rose in December to 24.3 points, is expected to drop to 15 points

USA: index of leading indicators rose in November as expected by 1.1%

Dollar in the past week: the strengthening of the krona to 18.70 CZK / USD recovered to 19.10 CZK / USD

Last week was published a number of reports have an impact on the course Eurodollars. At the beginning of the week, the euro gains imputed when strengthened from 1.3200 USD / EUR up to $ 1.3450 / €.In the following days and erase all the gains Friday again already traded at $ 1.3200 / €.

Negative news for the euro came from Moody's,   which began to review the ratings of Spain and dropped a few degrees rating of Ireland with the possibility of further reductions. The tension is also expected to exit from the EU summit. But nothing to reassure markets. While EU leaders agreed on a mechanism that addresses the debt of European countries, which comes into force in 2013, but does not solve the current situation where it is needed now to raise funds in the European rescue fund.

For weakening of the dollar at the beginning of the week was also a report by Moody's, which threatened to reduce the possibility of rating outlook for the U.S. introduction of social and fiscal support by the U.S. administration. Data from the U.S. economy published during the week came mostly better than indicated expectations.

Key dates this week

Tuesday the U.S.: Consumer confidence at 19 December

Wednesday the U.S.: GDP for the 3rd Q.

Wednesday the U.S.: Sales of existing   home in November

Thursday the U.S.: durable goods orders for November

Thursday the U.S.: the number of unemployment benefit

Thursday USA: new home sales for November

Thursday the U.S.: University of Michigan consumer confidence for December

CZK / USD - outlook for the near month

The dollar should continue to remain strong levels. Now, the dollar remains at 1.3200 USD / EUR. Given the uncertainty that emerged after the news from Ireland and other European can not be ruled out that the position of the dollar currency credit secure further gains. In case of further strengthening of the dollar would soon crown could again rise above the limit of 19.00 CZK / USD.

CZK / USD - early 2011 views

Markets will continue to debate the fragility of global economic recovery and will flash by reports of problems with public finances in many countries. Speculation of a rise in interest rates to affect trading in the course of 2011. View the beginning of the year remains uncertain. Peter now has a black euro area at the beginning of the year, but may move back negative attention to the problems in the U.S..

Problems, however, the euro area and long-term confidence in the European markets do not return within days or weeks, so in the long run we let the bandwidth, where the crown can hold between 18.00 to 20.00 CZK / USD at risk at the top.

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