Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Macroeconomics  |  May 30, 2011 11:44:53

FX Update: Despite a solid NZD New Zealand posted a record trade surpluses


Week initiated in the early Asian session New Zealand published a record trade deficit in April: rising commodity prices is signed to a surplus of 1.113 billion NZD for a given month, which far surpassed both the expected NZD 0.6 billion and 0.578 billion for the revised the previous month. While annual exports climbed by 17%, imports showed a moderate growth of 7.2%. Besides the movements of the end of last week, Chinese investments have motivated NZD scored further gains.

Meeting of G8 financial markets yielded nothing could catch. Far more attention earned efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and North Africa, which could help stabilize the region. In the UK and the U.S. today is a holiday, so the rest of the session did not bring any significant activity, the players should beware of significant variations in conditions of low liquidity.

Regarding macrodata published, the index of home prices in the UK according to a survey Hometrack recorded the fastest annual decline in 18 months. The said company for market research indicated that played a role as public holidays in May, however, as well as weak consumer sentiment and a higher risk of unemployment. Greece meanwhile dominate headlines during the weekend, when Der Spiegel suggested that according to the findings of the inspection teams EU / IMF Greece did not fulfill even one fiscal target, which further endanger aid tranche from the IMF. Greek Prime Minister G.Papandreou promised to push through further austerity measures despite their refusal to Friday's main opposition party. Today's Financial Times brings news that EU leaders are negotiating the possibility of unprecedented external intervention in the Greek economy, which would include tax collection, privatization program, additional austerity measures and incentives for private lenders Greek government bonds to voluntarily came to extend their maturity. EURUSD remained for most of the Asian session pinned to the level of 1.43.

In Europe today the only retail sales data disclosures and wages in Sweden. In the USA, have holidays, so the only remaining Canadian radar for March GDP and current account data for Q1 quarter.

Friday featured a rather volatile end of the week, resulting in the inability to break through key resistance euro, despite a strong upward pressure in Asian trading after reports that the EU is working on legislation that would eliminate more stringent capital requirements of Basel III. Considerations to the fore during the European session were again concerns about the situation in Greece.Trading in Dexia shares was suspended on the basis of speculation about the loss of Greek bonds, while the Greek main opposition party rejected plans for new austerity measures. CHF experienced strong demand within safe buy currencies and on very good result KOF survey (economic sentiment is at the highest level since August 2006), which resulted in the EURCHF reached new historic lows.

If the data published in the U.S., attracted the most attention rozjednané home sales. Personal consumption / income was broadly in line with expectations (both 0.4%), the final statement of the University of Michigan consumer confidence was revised from 72.4 slightly higher at 74.3, while rozjednané home sales compared to an expected -1.0 % and the previous revised down 3.5% mom fell by 11.6% year on year and even the colossal 26.8%, which is a new low in this series. Revenues of U.S. Treasury bills and 10-year bonds fell to new lows in 2011 to just above 3%.

Starting tomorrow, the calendar will be charged macrodata and approaching the end of the month, so it will not matter from greater caution.

For more information, visitwww.saxobank.cz.

Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets

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