Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Currencies  |  June 07, 2011 12:04:25

FX Update: RBA left rates unchanged in the declarations opted to tone holubičímu


At the first meeting of central banks that await us this week, leaving the Reserve Bank of Australia rate as expected unchanged at 4.75%, but the tone of some statements accompanying statement was more dovish than expected. In broad terms, this statement did not differ from previous versions, but was heard mention that there was a slight decline in commodity prices, leading indicators point to worse conditions for employment and uncertainty about the debt in the euro area is growing. It seems that the potential rate increases are being transferred and reflected the appropriate response AUD.

Even before the RBA commentary apparent signs of the weakening economy, AIG appeared in the May index of performance in construction, which, while it strengthened slightly compared to April, but not so much due to the massive decline in residential homes and commercial properties nevybředl from deep below the surface 50, where he holds the twelfth month in a row.

It seems that without the royal wedding and Easter holidays to British consumers had no reason to spend as BRC sales in comparable stores declined by 2.1% in contrast to the April increase of 5.2%. It is clear that concerns about economic development and unemployment along with high inflation and slow wage growth have their influence. Annual IMF analysis shows that the British economy for 2011 is the "right way" to the 1.5% growth in the medium term and to achieve 2.5% growth, although this development is not safe. The report also adds that in case the growth predicted by the Bank of England joined the right course.

In Europe, we expect the unemployment rate in Norway, the index of consumer prices in Switzerland, retail sales in the euro area and German corporate orders. During the U.S. session on the program are the IBD / TIPP economic optimism index and JOLTs new job.

Nervousness - this is the best characteristic of nocturnal events. Hangover from Friday's devastating numbers of jobs outside agriculture only contributed to the diminishing risk appetite.Not joined to the certainty or inconsistent reports on the situation in Greece and warning the German finance minister, that have a second rescue package has not at all certain. Pessimistic commentary L. Bini Smaghi of the ECB and the result of poor investor confidence in the euro area SenTix retreated to below EUR 1.46. Further pressure the euro exhibited the head of EU finance ministers J.-C. Juncker, its comment that this is against its currency counterparts "objectively overvalued." On the other hand, J.-C. Trichet spoke of "the risk of rising inflation," which would indicate that the word "caution" will be on Thursday's ECB press conference again in perpetuity. One of the worst results recorded GBP after the IMF lowered outlook for UK growth and raised the issue that continued weak growth with persistent high inflation will require a reassessment of the overall approach.

The U.S. did not arrive overnight no major macrodata of Canada hodgepodge we have had - on the one hand, absolutely neodhadnutý drop in building permits (-21.1% mm against the expected -7.5%, but in contrast to the giant was +16.8% from last month), on the other hand, one of the world's best-performing Ivey Purchasing Managers Index at 69.1 on the previous value of 57.7. Decrease to a minimum two and a half has seen Wall Street, the fourth loss in a row, when the hangover from Friday's employment data continue to be precipitated into the depths of sentiment.

For more information, visit www.saxobank.cz .

Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets

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FX Update: RBA ponechala sazby beze změny, v prohlášeních se přiklonila k holubičímu tónu

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