Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  June 09, 2011 10:24:30

CS - GDP or inflation CNB do not press for immediate intervention in the rates

Today has been published   final figure for GDP in the 1Q/11. The economy grew by CSO data q / qo 0.8% q / q, more than our original estimate of +0.5% q / q (this was the median of the market). Y / y growth reached +2.8% 1Q/11. Please complete so the concern of some observers that   that the economy is falling under the influence of solar power boom in numbers and under the influence of fiscal restrictions in 1Q/11 QoQ decline. However, it is true that the Office again revised the growth rate of individual components of GDP for the previous quarter, which slightly complicates comparisons and evaluations of past forecasts. 

·          The illustration in household demand 4Q/10 according to the original data of March decreased q / qo 1.3%, according to data released today  However, in the same period grew by 0.4%. Due to adjustments especially in 1H/10 But even this upward revision was not enough - and household demand for the full year 2010 does not rise by 0.3%, as suggested in March data, but rather   a tenth of a percent decrease. Annual growth of GDP in 2010, however, has not changed - it is still 2.2%.  

·          With that, the data published today may change in the future, we note that   on the supply side of the economy in the growth of real gross value added by 3.5% accounted for 4/5 manufacturing. On the demand side, the q / q growth driven by the expected net exports (CZK 36 billion vs. In 4Q/10 32 billion) and even more surprisingly supplies (+14 bn SA, q / q). Conversely, domestic demand  decreased by 0.7% and government demand by 0.8% q / q - it is a consequence of fiscal consolidation. Fixed investment declined while QoQ (solar boom), but only by 3%, which was well below expectations: q / q total investment added nearly 4%, when Z is invested in (non-residential) buildings and vehicles, and increased supplies.  

·          From this perspective, the main story for this year yet fulfilled: growth driven by industry (export) and fixed investment in production capacity (which is reflected in other čtrvletích when the image is not obscured by solar panels, but now it is seen that the companies wake up) .  

·          Monetary policy: The data for 1Q/11 are better than what was waiting in its May forecast of CNB (+0.3% q / q), mainly due to better development investment.Conversely, domestic demand in 2010 was weaker than expected CNB (revision), for 1Q/11 was just -0.7% y / y, as expected CNB (we waited in the April forecast of -0.5% y / y) . From this perspective, today's GDP data are not as picture-changing information as well.


·          Today came also the data for the May inflation. Despite the market and our expectations (+0.3% q / q) the price level rose by 0.5% m / m, arranged a surprise when most of the higher food prices. Y / y growth was 2%. Even from this perspective there is no information that would make the CNB immediately proceed to raise rates. The structure of inflation remained outside - demand is still negative inflation, price growth is only due to fuel, food and regulated prices.



Martin Lobotka
Czech Savings Bank, Inc.

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