Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Finance  |  June 14, 2011 09:06:21

MS - commentary 06.14 - Boring in CEE, a surprise from Italy, Greece, rating, Chinese inflation

CR + Region

·(CZ, PL) in the region nothing interesting in the CR hotují unions to strike (and on Thursday we go on outreach training), Poland centrbankéřka Gilovska spoke with the fact that inflation in 2H/11 surely fall and that higher rates supplied by them to sign it.   The crown has returned close to stronger levels 24.15, it is possible that the attempt to get under 24, although a weaker dollar and stronger share it loaded. In any case, the crown about



·           EMU (D-1) again yesterday something surprising - Italian industrial production increased by 1% m / m 04/11 (and in addition, 03/11 was revised up to +0.7% m / m), which is surprising in light of Data from the GER and FRA (these three countries together are about 2/3 of EMU), where the industry has slowed significantly in April.But it is also true, F e ITA for these 2 countries so far lagged behind, so maybe it's just now catching up with little delay. It is difficult to imagine that Germany and France will slow, and not the ITA - in the coming months and we expect a slowdown in the ITA, if the slowdown in the FRA and GER confirmed.   As growth remains slow in the ITA, this next year is expected around 1% ... The growth is so poor, which could provoke an attack of speculators because of the high debt - but that is mostly internal, so it's not that big of a problem.

·           Greece is from yesterday (as SP) countries with the lowest rating (CCC), lower than Ecuador, which defaultoval in 2009), in addition, the SP said that any attempt to restructure, according to the SP which is still likely to be considered a default (with implications for the CDS, etc.). Germans are still behind, whether it hurts a little and private creditors, the ECB is vehemently against it - are afraid of something like Lehman (and a couple of Greek bonds to itself ..). EURUSD is around 1.44, could easily, in my view of what awaits the EMU, it could be at or below 1.4.

·           CN (D-1) China's inflation last year to nearly 3.5 maximum (5.5%).   Given the rapid growth (9.7% in 1Q/11, 10.3% in 2010) yet it does not look at a more rapid fall in inflation (although this is in China a lot of food), which is what China is trying to CB. It, frankly, high inflation in China could endanger not only techn. stability   but mainly social cohesion (which the Chinese leadership feared like the devil). Certainly we therefore expect another round of tightening monetary policy.

Martin Lobotka
Czech Savings Bank, Inc.

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ČS - koment 14.6. - nuda v CEE, překvapení z Itálie, rating Řecka, čínská inflace

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