iPoint (iPoint.cz)
Finance  |  June 17, 2011 11:59:01

The fall of the market: About 10, 20 or 30 percent? Black Swan said 40!


40 and more percent down over the next three years. Such prediction markets analysts wrote Investments Universe, otherwise known as the Black Swan, because same connection with the author's theorem, Nassim Taleb. Alarming market prospects published by Black Swan CNBC 13th June, contains a vision, which accrues after the goosebumps: "At the current valuation, there is 20% chance of more than 40% correction in the S & P 500 over the next few years," says the report of the Universe. In his hypothesis refers to the historical data for the past 110 years in the equity markets. The author of the study is Mark Spitznagel, "He studied for a century the development of the S & P. At a time when there was still the benchmark, used a comparable basket of stocks mixed by economics professor Robert Schiller, "says CNBC. A key subject of interest was the SpitznagelovaQ-ratio, the ratio of market capitalization and its total assets. Subsequently ascertaining the dependence between the development of Q-ratio and movement of stock markets. The value of Q is the ratio of analyst 1,04. What does it mean? It's tough to say ...

Universe Investments, which is known as Nassim Taleb, prophesies Ice Age: Read the iPOINT

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Pád trhu: O 10, 20 nebo 30 procent? Black Swan říká 40!

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