Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Finance  |  June 21, 2011 09:28:46

MS - commentary 21.06 - Vote of confidence in the Greek government, rating Italy, ZEW


·      Hungarian central bank (NBH), in line with expectations kept interest rates unchanged at 6%. The decision on rates was unanimous. NBH is expected in the next two years, economic growth below potential, because domestic demand is recovering only slowly and gradually.Inflation should fall to the objectives (3%) at the end of next year without further tightening of monetary policy. This year, however, will probably be significantly exceeded target due to rising commodity prices.

·    Member of the Monetary Committee of the Polish central bank (NBP) Kazimierczak said that the NBP should continue raising interest rates. He fears that, while inflation will decline from May, but the decline is too slow. But last week the Governor of the NBP Belka said that the central bank because of higher inflation in May did not panic.Our view resonates with the governor: _ do not think that this year there will be another rate hike.

·    Yesterday, a moderate pressure against the forint and zloty. We assume that the situation was rather calm, and both of exchange should begin to turn to stronger levels. Crown held yesterday at 24.10, with her ??calm would lead to a slight weakening. The risk to this outlook is an implicit trust the Greek government (assuming that the Greek government gets confidence).


·    The event day will be a vote of confidence the Greek government. Unspoken confidence would probably causing panic for fear of political deadlock and blocking other austerity measures. According to him the chief Ecofin Juncker Greek Prime Minister Papandreou assured that the government will do everything to secure additional financial assistance.Market this statement partly calmed, reflected particularly in the strengthening of the euro.

·    Moody's warned that it could reduce the rating of AA2 Italian due to concerns about economic growth, which brought about a structural weakness and growth rates.

·    In today published ZEW cyclical decline is expected, reflecting the deteriorating mood in financial markets. Economy is not yet visibly affected by the slowdown in the U.S. or even problems in southern Europe, a stronger impact of these risk factors is growing.  

Ľuboš Mokráš
Czech Savings Bank

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ČS - koment 21.6. - hlasování o důvěře řecké vládě, rating Itálie, ZEW

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