Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Finance  |  September 20, 2011 09:35:20

MS - commentary 20.09 - S & P rating of the cut Italian, Ecofin as it is, Obama's plan cuts, Poland

  Standard & Poor's downgraded the Italian rating due to concerns that growth faltering economy and a fragile government could complicate efforts to reduce debt. Rating was lowered from A + to A with a negative outlook. The market does not help, of course, the euro has responded to the weakening of 1.36.  


·           After a weekend of Greece and continues to issue debt crisis. ECOFIN meeting in Wroclaw did not bring anything new. T.Geithner suggested Europe to EFSF used as a reserve for loans from the ECB, thereby effectively increasing the amount of times the available funds (leverage effect of Al U.S. 2008). His idea but did not find among European finance ministers understand.  


·           Greek Prime Minister Papandreou canceled a trip to the U.S. to enforce the required cuts at home. The EU and the IMF has not send inspectors back to Greece, who have to evaluate compliance with the conditions (after the few weeks just because of their failure left). Yesterday had with Greece on the subject "only" teleconference, which was the official statement productive. Today will be another. The media got a list of 15 measures required by the EU, Greece and the IMF for the release of further tranches. They include layoffs of state employees, reducing wages and pensions, the closure of some state organizations, reduce healthcare costs and speeding up privatization.  


·           Finance ministers of Belgium and Spain called for introduction of a tax on financial transactions at EMU if it fails to agree on the whole EU. And it probably can not, because it prevents the introduction of CU.The British fear is that the financial institutions began to move from London - suggested that the G20 agreed on it, but at least Americans are clearly against it. Above the practicality of this so-called Tobin tax (it would also reduce speculative trades) ruler never match. Anyway it is true that more and smaller area will be introduced, the less will have effect (displaces the transaction tax-friendly markets).  


·           Slovak Finance Minister Miklos tries to push through approval of an increase EFSF at home. Voting should take place according to him, to 11.10 and should be linked to the vote of confidence in government.  


·           President Obama introduced a plan to reduce the deficit of 3 trillion over the next 10 years. In exchange for raising taxes for the rich (including millionaire "Buffet" tax) will veto the Republicans' efforts to reduce health care resources in the Medicare program. Since the Republicans under pressure (Tea Party) rejected any tax increases, it looks for another protracted conflict (Congress must approve the budget by December 23, otherwise we can start the automatic spending cuts), and by Obama's concessions to the end and beginning of the fight for electoral votes . Perhaps even more important than the result, the markets for the way in which it occurs - that is the question of whether politicians can agree. After wrangling about an increase in the debt ceiling in the middle of the holidays, you probably have a lot of people does not make any illusions.  


·           Polish industrial output in August added 8.1% y / y, well above market expectations of 2.7% and 1.8% of the July. On this account, she declared, A. Zielinská Glebocká of the NBP, it does not give rise to a change in monetary policy. In a situation where the expected slowdown at the end of the year, sees room for further rate hikes.

Peter Bittner  
Czech Savings Bank

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