HighSky (HighSky)
Currencies  |  April 10, 2012 14:32:36

USD / JPY - just continues to strengthen


Just today, the dollar strengthened by 0.5% d / d to 81.2 partly because the BoJ decision on interest rates. Although the main overnightová rate remained unchanged at 0.1%, but surprisingly the bank not to discuss strengthening the expansive monetary policy in the form of asset purchases, Japanese government bonds. After a surprisingly drab March U.S. employment growth and the weakening of the dollar below the important support zone from 82.0 to 82.2 (in March and April lows, Fibonacci 23.6%), respectively, 81.8 and 81.5 the market found support at current levels (also underside of the declining trend treměsíčního Fibonacci 38.2% respectively). Highlight correction below these levels would have stripped the 80.1 (50% Fibonacci).The market, on the other side away from the ceiling zone overbuying daily and weekly oscillators, signal restoration potential bull trend will be confirmed by overcoming barriers of 82.2 to 82.6.

USDJPY, daily comment

In view of this year, but is in a strong depreciative channel deleted several key technical levels. Correction can pick up the band from 80.0 to 82.2 or 78.0. Technical developments of the last weeks (growth impulsive, easily surpassed 200-MA and its drop below 100 for the first time since August 2010), the fundamental reasons (balance of payments model, reviving the U.S. economy in recent days, a significant shiftU.S. yield curve, which rather suggests the Fed's unwillingness to further strengthen ultraexpanzivní monetary policy, the difficulties the Japanese economy and efforts to prevent further BoJ Sharing yen), and sentiment analysis (supported by growth in the dollar) but in the medium and long term likelihood of continued good signal the bull market and stabilization of the decade-long bear a strong trend. Macroeconomic and financial indicators speak for a stronger dollar.

Joseph Kvarda
Analyst

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