Patria: Unipetrol in 1Q12 - estimates - still insufficient margin to return to positive operating figures
Unipetrol will announce its results for Q1 2012 on Wednesday 25 April, before the market opens. We expect a slight operating loss (EBIT according to FIFO) of -60 million CZK, mainly due to the still relatively low margins in the refinery and petrochemicals, despite mezikvartálnímu improvement in both segments. The operating result, the range back into the black, so unfortunately will have to take care of especially favorable non-cash inventory revaluation, the aggregate amount of approximately CZK 550 million, with that as the price of oil, fuel and primary products during 1Q12 the company grew.Unlike 4Q11, when the company approached the large depreciation of the value of its assets, the result would not be burdened by this time no special item.
We estimate that the net result could be achieved in a positive zero, if the trend during 1Q12 směných courses should contribute to the financial results of CZK 156 million, estimated the actual management of Unipetrol.
Given that Unipetrol published 19th April selected operating and financial indicators, many of which have already indicated, we assume that the reaction of the results will be rather dim. However, we believe that premium with which Unipetrol trades within their sector, does not correspond with the limited ability of the company generate given the situation in industry profits.
|Unipetrol - 1Q12 forecast|
|CZK million||1Q11A||Patria 1Q12E||1Q12E Kons.||y / y Patria||y / y Kons.|
|Revenues||23 088||25 967||25 685||12.5%||11.2%|
* Reuters consensus
Conference Call: Wednesday, 25 February at 14:00 (CET) Number: +44 207 162 0077; ID 916060
We estimate that the petrochemical segment EBIT is negative again, in the amount of CZK -140 million, despite a slight improvement in petrochemical margins (an average of +8 per cent q / q), marketed, and greater volumes of products.
We are waiting for a return to slightly positive numbers in the refinery operating (EBIT +50 million CZK), when the difference in price improved BU to 1.3 dollar per barrel in 4Q11 from 0.3 and model refining margin increased to 2.2 USD / b for $ 0.8 / b in 4Q11. As we already mentioned, results of operations in the refinery and petrochemical industry should be substantially supported by a positive revaluation of non-monetary ZASO
The contribution from the retail sector should be lower than usual, only about +35 million CZK, with lower QoQ and YoY sales continued decline in fuel consumption of the population. Record high fuel prices is also the season came weaker first quarter
Thomas Sykora, Patria Finance
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