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Markets  |  May 05, 2012 12:28:41

Supervolební weekend in Europe: a growing nervousness in the markets (05/05/2012)



Europe faces a very intense election weekend. The second round of presidential elections in France and parliamentary elections in Greece the right to return markets nervous.

In the French elections with a high probability scores with socialist François Hollande, who is still perceived by many investors as a veiled threat. Part of the concern stems from his unwillingness to have agreed to respect the European Convention fiscal.

Original sharp "against-the striking 'rhetoric, however, Hollande time wearing down and now it seems that it will require only completion of tax agreements is relatively small pro-growth elements, such as greater supportinvestment in infrastructure from the pockets of Brussels and the European Investment Bank (EIB). It probably will not for Merkel problem, because something similar as it asks the SPD opposition at home.

The meaningfulness of such pro-growth measures is of course quite right to doubt - the Portuguese economy is equipped with a top rail and highway networks, but on economic growth or jobs it certainly can not see yet.

Serious problem in the strategy of the likely new French helmsman is too much emphasis on increasing the already high tax burden and bet on too fast growth of French economy. This combination may lead to the postponement of necessary reforms and to further undermine the competitiveness of the French model of the economy, which already visibly lags behind the German orDutch.

Instant stress, however, hardly evoke the French elections, Hollande is a man of compromise, and should prove in the first days in office fears more foreign investors to control.

Nervousness can stir up view of the Greek election results. The two main parties are committed to fulfill the tasks imposed by the International Monetary Fund (PASOK and New Democracy), probably just get together most closely.

In addition, New Democracy, according to some Greek politicians really want to rule together with the main political rival, and any group is likely to be very unstable.

According to the Wall Street Journal, many Greek politicians openly admits that the situation could easily result in a call for new elections. In this difficult environment, Greece in June found another 11.5 billion euros of savings. IMF, the EU can then threaten freezing Aténám second rescue package.

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