Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  May 10, 2012 15:44:20

The price of electricity and CEZ - hard to remain immune shares

Development of electricity prices, shares of CEZ, as well as other related commodities in recent weeks as a very interesting and Compass home in April so we will try to offer an explanation of their ties in recent weeks.

Electricity prices in Germany (and therefore the Czech) market affects the demand side, respectively. consumption, particularly the development of coal prices, gas and emission allowances. Equilibrium market price of electricity market in Germany is called the rule set "Merit-order ', ie the marginal cost of expensive resources connected to the network. This just in Germany coal or gas power plant (on request). Both of these sources are also known as fossil fuels and hence the game enters the price of CO2 allowances. It was the price of emission allowances in recent months, a factor that most determined the changes in energy prices as long contracts. The correlation of the two contracts in 2013 was the summer of 2011 more than 0.9 (see chart). Correlation was breached after many months until this April.CEZ's share price, resistant to drops in prices of electricity only in March, but for example in last December, during April and May at home dropped considerably.

It offers the following explanation: As long as electricity prices fall mainly to the price of emission allowances, CEZ profitability suffer so much, thanks to its mix of production. If the price is lower due to declining electricity allowance, margin coal power plants is increasing due to their high emission factor. The growing profitability of coal power plants (45 percent of production) will be replacing the declining profitability of other productive resources CEZ.Once the price of electricity falls mainly to a decline in demand and prices of coal and gas (oil), hard to find a reason to CEZ's share price remained immune to such downturns.

Patria Finance, Research

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