Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
World markets  |  May 31, 2012 08:08:00

Euro falls away

In sinking the euro is still the same event, which is mainly the fear of development in Spain. The unfavorable report of the auction and Italian bonds, where investors are demanding much higher returns than a month ago. 10-year yield has again risen 6.0%. Exchange rate USD / EUR and fell by almost one additional percentage, and during today's Asian trading ranged below 1.24.

Negative factor for the euro has been a decline in overall confidence in the euro area economy, when the index reached its lowest level since October 2009. The published report also shows a decreasing trend in employment that will have a negative impact on household disposable income, leading to a decline in consumer demand.

Today, the calendar is quite full of macroeconomic events. From Europe we will see the first estimate of the May inflation should fall slightly by consensus at 2.5% y / y. This should be especially decreasing oil prices. The trend of reduction should continue in the coming months, but should be very slow and uneven. Under the ECB's inflation target should be to get in 2013.

On the left bank of the Atlantic Ocean will be watched Friday's opening act of the data from the U.S. labor market, the ADP report, which should show the creation of new jobs in the private sector amounting to 135 thousand. Colleagues from the SG, however, are more pessimistic in its estimates, while waiting for only 95 thousand. In addition, the revised GDP figure for Q1 12, whose growth would be mainly due to lower production inventory was reduced.Will we see as leading indicator of industrial production from the Chicago area, where expectations are relatively friendly.

Author: Miroslav Frayer

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