Josef Kvarda (HighSky)
Investor's window  |  June 01, 2012 10:26:37

The U.S. dollar and dollar policy - random link?


U.S. dollar as the currency symbol and the main economic, commercial, financial and political centers of the world and the locomotive of global economic cycles and trends figures in the most liquid and most popular in world markets. Transactions with the dollar represents about 85% of the total.

The dollar is influenced by a number of economic and financial factors. In recent quarters, the dollar on the rise mainly due to two reasons. The first is that the eurozone debt crisis spreads economic fundamentals of the euro, the main competitor to the dollar, and it becomes somewhat paradoxically, due to other structural problems of the U.S. economy, currency security. The second reason is that the U.S. economy, despite mixed numbers last week, still has better performance than that of other major world centers: the euro zone or Japan.A great role is played by another, equally important aspect of the development of long-term trend of the U.S. dollar - exchange rate policy of the U.S. Treasury.

United States Treasury, in coordination with the Fed responsible for exchange rate policy. In the last two decades have desire and vision of the U.S. Treasury market a major impact.In the mid-nineties was first introduced to "strong dollar policy," Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, and was subsequently confirmed by his successor in office, Lawrence Summers. The main assumption to be those of the U.S. and the world, to reduce the growth in revenues of U.S. Treasury bonds and control inflation risk. Dollar from the bottom in 1995 and 2002 considerably strengthened thanks to a robust economy, strong growth in labor productivity, attractive investment opportunities and high interest rates.

At the beginning of a new decade already, the new republican government of the United States, due to the weakening economy, under the weight of the terrorist strikes, the stock market bubble burst, corporate failures of Enron or WorldCom type, growing trade deficit and dissatisfaction export lobby, facing pressures to turn the rudder exchange rate policy. Need new weak currency but requires clever political marketing. First of all, no President of the United States does not want to be president of a weak dollar. Second, the sharp weakening of the currency would lead to adverse effects on financial markets and economy.

At first glance, only cosmetically adjusted the rhetoric of "The dollar is determined by the market" was successful. She was a key influence dollar exchange rate, while significantly helped to turn his long-term trend. Market time of good intentions of the architects felt the dollar exchange rate policy and the dollar is steadily opening decade of the millennium slábnul. What went wrong with the world's major central banks in the fall of 2000, namely, interventions to stop the weakening of the euro, could among other things, the U.S. exchange rate change mantra.

Expression is not by chance that U.S. leaders, from President and ending with the Ministry of Finance officials, closely monitored. Not by accident is to express support for the current dollar Treasury Geithner, at the beginning of this decade, accompanied by his appreciation. Knowledge is not by chance that the dollar exchange rate policy for investors is very important.

Ing. Josef Kvarda

analytik společnosti HighSky Brokers, a.s.

Vystudoval ekonomickou fakultu VŠB v Ostravě, obor národohospodářství. Působil jako analytik ve společnosti ATLANTIK finanční trhy, kde se zabýval makroekonomickými analýzami a projekcemi hlavních světových ekonomik a finančních trhů, zejména měn. Od ledna 2012 pracuje jako analytik ve společnosti HighSky Brokers a pokrývá forexové a komoditní trhy. Rovněž se specializuje na světovou a domácí makroekonomickou situaci. Pravidelně přednáší o finančních trzích a fundamentální analýze na seminářích pro veřejnost. Součástí jeho analytické práce je také poskytování informací a komentářů.

O SPOLEČNOSTI
Společnost HighSky Brokers, a.s. je prvním obchodníkem s cennými papíry na českém trhu, který svým klientům poskytuje možnost obchodovat měny, komodity, akciové indexy a dluhopisy prostřednictvím nové obchodní platformy MetaTrader 5. Tuto platformu využívá jako jeden z prvních i v Evropě. Společnost vznikla v roce 2010 a disponuje licencí České národní banky. Základní kapitál společnosti činí 37, 5 milionů korun.

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