Research (Investicniweb.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  June 05, 2012 09:05:33

QE3 is imminent (June 5, 2012)



Friday's numbers from the U.S. labor market has been disastrous, for it is the same as most analysts. As shown in gold prices immediately after the disclosure, the market immediately began to bet more on the third round of quantitative easing by the Fed. Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Morgan Stanley for U.S. claims to be a 80% chance of no QE3 announcement at the June meeting of the American Central Bank (June 19 to 20).

"Fewer and fewer new jobs, tensions in Europe and the reluctance of American politicians deal with the situation responsibly connected with the end of tax relief at the end of the year - all the Fed can swing to greater action much sooner than expected," Reinhart wrote on Friday, the bank's clients.

QE3 is nevuhnutelné

During the week the eyes of investors will follow in Europe, especially the ECB, but in America released Beige Book Fed of the U.S. economy, are also expected during the week, the U.S. central bankers' speeches, including Ben Bernanke.

Morgan Stanley expects the Fed during the nine months of the new program will buy bonds for a total of 475 billion (525 billion with interest), each month should be a roughly 53 billion USD.

Another Fed program (QE3) - Morgan Stanley estimates

Reinhart is not the only one who after Friday's numbers from the labor market early start QE3 considered to be much more likely. Similarly, the television station CNBC interviewed Michelle Meyer of Bank of America. " The third round of quantitative easing is inevitable, "she said literally. By the Fed will have to support the economy to start before the autumn elections, which had GDP growth may be reduced to 1%. QE3, according to the current at the end of summer.

That rise in the price of gold during Friday's trading was really steep. The market has, it seems, the further influx of dollars quite clear.

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Shares may fall by another 30%, but some companies are already interesting - like Czech Telefonica

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QE3 je na spadnutí (5.6.2012)

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