Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  June 06, 2012 10:08:45

Comments on foreign trade - a good result, no April


The April trade figures do not record, but did not disappoint. According to preliminary data, in April year on year at current prices to increase exports by 8.4% and imports by 4.8%. A surplus 22.0 bn CZK, which was by CZK 8.8 billion higher. These figures contrast sharply with the balance of retail, where the year decreased by 4.1% and sales of new cars in this country has been on-year even decline by 6.0%.

The mom is not so optimistic, however, can be found, because after seasonal adjustment, exports decreased by 0.7% while imports increased by 1.4%. It should be noted of course that the first quarter of this year, exports from the perspective of a surprisingly successful. As we have already pointed out, begins with a slowdown in export volumes, which, according to figures released today, partly reflected in the mom in April. Behind this mainly due to lower demand caused by the surrounding market area principally persistent problems. Despite the decline in export volume remains the main driver of the Czech economy and the main export commodity machinery and transport equipment.

Czech exporters currently assisting in their business debilitating crown. In recent weeks, the currency pair with the euro traded well above the levels of 25 CZK / EUR and in the case of the U.S. dollar even moving at nearly two-year low crown, ie above 20 CZK / USD.

Otto Danek
Vice-President of the Association of Exporters

The April trade balance, although the result did not end a record surplus, as in the previous month, but it can be evaluated fairly positively. According to preliminary CSO data trade balance reached a surplus of EUR 22.0 billion. Compared with last April there was an increase of 8.8 billion crowns. At current prices, exports grew by 8.4% and imports by 4.8%. Compared with the previous month, however, exports declined by 0.7% and imports increased by 1.4%. Foreign trade turnover in April amounted to almost 477 billion crowns. The main export article remain the machinery and means of transport, especially road vehicles. On the contrary, the deficit grew in mineral fuels. From January to April this year, total trade surplus reached 116.9 billioncrowns and now it is clear that this year will be from the perspective of a record.

Record trade surpluses at the beginning of this year are certainly encouraging, but the next few months may bring a slight disappointment. The warning signals come mainly from the euro area. Increasingly unfavorable economic situation in European countries and not very encouraging lately walking data from the German economy raises legitimate concerns. Dynamics of growth of Czech exports year on year and slowed real danger that in the coming months will begin to stagnate. The reasons are both high base last year's volume of exports and raised problems in the eurozone.The trade balance, however, would continue to be significant surplus. A positive report on the conclusion is that the competitiveness of the domestic economy remains high.

 

Miroslav Novak
Analyst AKCENTA

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