Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  June 06, 2012 10:12:16

Comments on the April Industry - favorable results, outlook cautious


Czech industry is still resistant to recession. In April, the volume of industrial production increased by 2.2 percent, even sales by 2.7 percent. Given the same number of working days in any calendar time did not play a role. The volume of new contracts and the Purchasing Managers' index, however, offers a less favorable outlook.

Industry continues to dominate this year and production cars. That in April increased by 8.3 percent. Automakers successfully seconded network industries (manufacturing and distribution of electricity, gas and heat), whose production rose by 12.3 percent, and engineering, with growth of 7.5 percent. In deep depression remains manufacture of computers and electronics, where production fell by 19 percent. Also continues to reduce production mills in April fell by 2.8 percent.

Statistics of production and sales, although still evolving favorably, but caution is evident firms. Employment grew by a mere tenth of a percent.The average wage increased by 2.2 percent, taking into account inflation in consumer prices means a real decrease of 1.4 percent.

The volume of new orders rose by 0.4 percent, while foreign orders rose by 7.5 percent, while domestic orders dropped by 11.6 percent. Outlook for the coming months the clouds the latest Purchasing Managers' index values. In April this indicator dipped below 50 points, divide between growth and recession, and in May decreased further to 47.6 points. Essential for further development of the industry situation in the eurozone, where most of the faces of Czech exports.

David Marek of Patria Finance

The volume of industrial production in April of this year grew by 2.2% compared with the previous month was also higher by 0.1%. Although in both cases the industry could do better, it is evident that the pace of industrial production will slow down significantly

The situation in industry in the coming months may still worsen. Besides, this signal leading indicators (PMI), both from the Czech Republic and from Germany, which is our key trading partner. A bad situation also shows stagnating number of new orders. Orders from long-term decline and domestic demand from abroad in recent months also slowed. Western countries are also faced with their own problems and thus the number of new foreign orders in the coming months may fall further.

 

Miroslav Novak
Analyst AKCENTA


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