Akcieatrhy (Akcieatrhy.cz)
Markets  |  June 12, 2012 10:15:33

Price of petrol and diesel in the future somehow drops dramatically



“Akcieatrhy.cz“Looking at the correlation of oil and petrol prices over the past few years, we find no striking differences. Price of gasoline or less follows the price of oil and does not seem that this should somehow be changed.

Figure 1

Another graph shows the evolution of oil prices and exchange rate USD / CZK. In the period since 2004 to strengthen the crown stopped and ran into a triangular zone correction, and in the last year is seen weakening trend.

Figure 2

Now we can express how much a barrel of oil in the tops and find that the oil already in the tops of publishing more than when it was at its peak and cost $ 150 per barrel. That would explain the high price of gasoline at the pumps.

Figure 3

Prices of diesel and gasoline company publishes a long-term CCS, so we use the data that is available since 2005 and enter the price of petrol Natural 95 and price of diesel fuel into the next chart. Prices are expressed in dollars. Surprisingly, we see that even here there is a strong correlation between all prices.

Figure 4

Price of oil currently stands at 82 USD WTI for oil and 98 USD for Brent crude oil. While the price of oil declines, due to CZK USD also weakened, which destroys the prospects for a fundamental improvement in the prices of diesel and gasoline. The decline in oil prices and stopped its further decline can be expected only if the global economic slowdown. Given the relatively favorable economic situation and U.S. economies are still growing BRICS countries, on the contrary, it can be expected to rebound.Also, the koruna against the U.S. dollar weakened over the last year and due to the zero growth of GDP can not expect a major reversal of this trend.

We can not expect that the price of gasoline and diesel in the future somehow dramatically declined. Rather, it can be expected to stabilize at its current level and then grow again when the oil price issue up again.

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