Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  June 15, 2012 08:22:00

The May decline in prices in the U.S. increases the likelihood of quantitative easing

Euro against the dollar yesterday continued in a gentle workout, when European trading closed at $ 1.26 / EUR. Euro fared well this morning in the Asian markets when they ascribed another third percent.

Strengthening of the euro in the context of the forthcoming Greek elections and related nervous surprising. In yesterday's movement of the currency pair EUR / USD might be reasons but on the other side of the Atlantic. U.S. consumer prices is in May fell 0.3% m / m (the most since December 2008), when the market expected a decrease of only 0.2%. This is good news for the Fed, because low inflation is providing additional space for a new wave of quantitative easing (it should be decided at Wednesday's FOMC meeting). Year-on-year consumer price growth slowed to 1.7% in April from 2.3% y / y.Indicator CPI without volatile food and fuel prices showed a 0.2% m / m for the third month in a row. Number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States last week reached 386 thousand. (Market 375 thousand.).

The macroeconomic data we see today in the euro area balance of trade statistics for April, but this is not a very important figure. More interesting will be the May industrial production in the U.S., the market expects that mom basically stagnant.

On Sunday held a long-awaited Greek parliamentary elections. Pre-election polls showed roughly the same chance of winning New Democracy party (which are built to work with Troika) and SYRIZA (which is against the current form of international aid to Greece).Our colleagues from SG in both cases, expect a relatively rapid formation of coalition government under the leadership of one of these parties, but the new government will face a difficult and long negotiations on a possible easing of financial assistance for Athens.

Author: Mark Dřímal

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