Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Commodities  |  June 15, 2012 16:05:00

Greek elections decide on the further development of regional currencies

Friday's trading with the crown did not bring anything new. CZK / EUR rate ranged 15haléřovém band, when the most expensive trade in the interbank market made at 25.61 crowns. There was a relatively quiet trading for the other Central European currencies.

Surprisingly, a high current account surplus of 5.3 billion CZK not affect the crown. For this was primarily the result of the income balance, which showed an unexpectedly low deficit. The total current account deficit due to the trade balance continues to decrease. It was the first four months twice last year. The current account deficit this year should reach 2% of GDP after 2.9% last year. It turns out that the Czech Republic has no problems with external imbalances.

In addition, published and industrial producer prices, which were flat month-on-year comparison were higher by 1.7%. Favorably acted again lower oil prices, while an increase was observed in agricultural producer prices.

Outlook for next week is uncertain. Development rates of Central European currencies, including the Crown will mainly depend on the outcome of elections in Greece, where we should wait for the Sunday night or Monday morning. Victory parties claiming to cooperate with international institutions should bring to the markets could (temporary) relief associated with an increase in prices of risky assets and strengthening the Central European currencies, while the victory of the radical forces could have the opposite effect. Recent polls are slightly favored the moderate party of New Democracy.

Author: Miroslav Frayer

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