Research (Investicniweb.cz)
World markets  |  June 17, 2012 17:18:36

Stock manual for the new week on markets (June 17, 2012)



After a weekend in Europe wakes up to new situations - Elections in Greece will tell whether the country will take more direction from the euro area, or will only try to negotiate more lenient bail conditions. Serious situation in the euro area will be in Mexico at the G-20 finance ministers to address, is planned and "emergency meeting" closer to the G-7. American economy and the impact of European crisis it will be meeting to evaluate the Fed's Monetary Affairs.

Wall Street

19-20/6 Fed meeting followed by press conference

19/6 started building homes

21/6 Weekly number of applications for unemployment benefits

21/6 Purchasing Managers' Index in Manufacturing

21/6 Sales of existing homes

U.S. stocks experienced a week on a swing, but investors ultimately came to believe in the possibility of further support the economy by the Fed or central bank intervention in support of Europe, major indexes so that eventually accounted for approximately percent (S & P 500 +1.3%).

Within a week after the worst macrodata began again to talk more about the possibility that the Fed supported the U.S. economy, either by some form of continuing operations Twist (lengthening the average maturity of U.S. Treasury bonds on the market), or equal to the third wave of quantitative easing (QE3). This, according to analysts, could be to buy bonds and mortgage products.

The Fed, or the Monetary Committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.Due to events in Europe and the G-20 can be expected before the meeting of Governors of the Fed during a relatively turbulent trading him, any reference to support the economy would then markets could steer up. Important and any observations will be the Fed and other central banks to be coordinated action in support of Europe and liquidity in financial markets.

In the new week, investors will continue to monitor macrodata that can confirm the slowing U.S. economy in recent weeks. In particular, it will be the weekly number of requests for support and the number of real estate market. Worse numbers may ironically mean growth markets caused greater hope to support the economy.

Purchasing Managers' Index should then confirm that it is on the U.S. economy is still significantly better than the European, the potential drop below 50 points would be a very negative signal.

Europe

19/6 Germany - Producer Price Index

19/6 Germany - ZEW index of economic sentiment

21/6 Purchasing Managers' Index in Manufacturing

22/6 Germany - Ifo index of business sentiment

European stock markets in the second half of the week, rising on a wave of optimism about the possible intervention of the ECB and other central banks (DJ EuroStoxx 50 +1,74%). Start a new week and then immediately affect the Greek parliamentary elections to be held today.

Voters can send the country essentially three basic directions.

First In Greece, it will be possible to create a pro-European government, which will continue the austerity measures (even though New Democracy reports that he wants to reopen negotiations on the conditions for aid). This would mean that the ECB and the EU may not directly intervene in the markets. Because of Greece, It should be added.

Second Election results will not allow formation of a government in Greece, which is unlikely, for assets significantly bullish scenario.It will precipitate a rapid market intervention of the ECB, most likely as other world central banks (Fed, the Bank of England, SNB, Bank of Japan, speculation about the possibilities involving the People's Bank).

Third Any other outcome of the election, though it causes only a mild reaction to the ECB (and others). Moderately likely negative scenario for the markets.

6 scenarios of the euro after the Greek elections
6 scenarios of the euro after the Greek elections

Last week, just anxiously waiting to open on Monday prepared to impress the Spanish request for assistance to the banking sector. positive effect lasted only a few hours . A week later, he could no longer be published audit results of Spanish banks. Waiting, they will need up to 100 billion euros of new capital, which is basically secured Spain. Surprises would be any significantly higher amount.

Bonds of Spain in the second half of the week for the first time in the euro era have consulted with yields above 7% threshold, on Friday, however, the situation calmed down slightly. This was true even Italian bonds, which move with the Spanish hand in hand. Italy than Spain does have a significantly better economic fundamentals, with an expensive financing, however, can quickly come under enormous pressure.

The situation in Europe will want their say and the G-7 and G-20, who on Monday and Tuesday will meet in Mexico. Expects no serious measures, but rather would enable countries to declare their consent or request to intervene and support the central bank's moribund growth (the U.S.), or started up a new (Europe).

The condition of many economies in Europe tell the so-called flash PMI, namely the manufacturing industry. He reported a few months completely clear continuation of the recession in Europe. The mood in the German economy in addition will cancel their indexes ZEW and Ifo sentiment.

Want to know what direction will develop equity, currency and commodity markets in the second half of 2012? This option you have 21st June 2012 on the investment forum in the auditorium of VSFS in Prague, where you in two moderated discussion and several separate blocks of lectures leading economists and investment experts point out the best investment for the rest of the year.

The Prague Stock Exchange

18/6 and PX CECE - new base indices

24/6 CEZ - Annual General Meeting

The Prague Stock Exchange in the second half of the week in accordance with European markets "took", but it was not enough for more than to return to the values ??at the end of the previous week (PX -0.06%).

Most stocks were growing KIT digital (+35,54%), when the company announced changes in the shareholder structure and greater efforts to involve new shareholders to decide on the company. Most decreasing the title last week was ORCO (-4.89%), which was just a correction gains from previous weeks.

The news took home information on NWR (+1.96% per week), which, according to Polish press looking for a partner for your project Debiensko. The company previously announced that it will review the project parameters, and this year it invests in only 5 instead of the originally planned 50 million euros.

CME (-0.97%) announced the result of a tender for its debt, where there is a redemption of bonds maturing in 2013 for USD 109 million and in 2014, 71 million, while bonds due in 2016 will not buy. CME in debt reduction will require a total of $ 180 million, of which 86 million has already received offerings."To acquire the remaining 94 million CME does not issue public shares. Our current scenario is the most preferred capital increase only in the hands of Time Warner for a similar price as the last increase, meaning the $ 7.5 per share," he wrote in a weekly commentary on the events markets, principal analyst of J & T Banka Milan Vanicek.

The new week will be Czech shares traded in the PX index and the CECE Central to the new representation (new weights). Patria Finance, according to its calculations assumed representation of Czech titles CECE as follows:

The new Central European base CECE index from 18 June 2012

The tone of trading, however, as elsewhere in Europe, some results of the Greek parliamentary elections. The debt crisis culminates in the euro area, mainly because they are monitored bank titles, despite having a total depreciation of an interesting exhibition in Spanish and / or Italian bonds. The upcoming dividend should continue to support the CEZ.


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