TNBiz (TNBiz)
Macroeconomics  |  June 24, 2012 00:53:46

CNB will reduce the basic interest rate by 0.25 percentage point, analysts estimate


PRAGUE (MEDIAFAX) - Czech National Bank (CNB) will reduce the basic two-week repo rate to a record low of 0.5 percent, analysts believe the agency address unless otherwise indicated. CNB will be the setting of monetary policy decisions in Thursday's meeting, attended by all seven members of the board.

"In my opinion, could reduce the rate, namely by 25 basis points, which had suggested the previous performances of some members of the board in the media," said the agency Mediafax GE Money Bank analyst Peter Gapko. According to his words is due to the fact that inflationary pressures from the economy and the current inflation vyprchávají is controlled basically just raising VAT at the beginning of the year, economic growth is also weak. All this speaks for a reduced rate. "The only risk for which the rate cut would have been avoided, the koruna.If the Crown in the course of the week sharply weaken, it could prevent the reduction, but rather believe that the CNB to reduce the rate reaches, "concluded the analyst.

"We estimate that a reduction in basic weekly repo rate by 25 basis points to 0.5 percent. This is an increase of negative information on foreign and Czech economic situation, "said chief economist at Patria Finance analyst David Marek. According to him, remains weak and domestic demand, which does not generate any inflationary pressures and thus does not represent any threat to price stability. "Core inflation is negative for three years and forecasts for this year continues to move downward. It is therefore a strong likelihood that there may be a change in the CNB's forecasts. All this should justify the movement of interest rates towards a more relaxed monetary policy, "says Mark.

"We expect that the Czech National Bank at its June meeting is likely to reduce its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point and the main interest rate to get to 0.5 percent, the lowest in history," said CSOB analyst Petr Dufek and reminded that to reduce interest rates have already voted last two members of the board. "In the meantime, the voices of CNB to reduce tariffs and other members of the board. Central Bank decision on this recording is less than forecasted inflation and rapid economic downturn, "said Dufek. According to his estimate could after this rate cut following a long period of historically low rates at least until the middle of next year.

At its last meeting on monetary policy, which was held on 3 May, the CNB Council decided to leave the base rate at 0.75 percent in the ratio 4:2: 1 For this decision voted four board members: Mojmir Hampl, Kamil Janacek, Lubomir licked and Pavel Rezabek. Two members (Miroslav Singer and Vladimir Tomsik) voted to reduce rates by 0.25 percentage point. Zamrazilová Eva raised her hand to raise rates by 0.25 percentage point.

From 8 CNB in ??February 2008 slashed its key interest rate from 3.75 percent at that time in eight steps by 300 basis points to a record low of 0.75 percent. Recently it reduced the 6th May 2010, since then it has left behind šestnáckrát unchanged. In contrast, the last increase (by 0.25 percentage point), the seventh resolved February 2008.

The discount rate remained at 0.25 percent, the lombard rate to 1.75 percent. Repo rate is the basic monetary policy interest rate on CNB are remunerated by commercial banks excess liquidity withdrawn by the CNB two-week repo tenders. The discount rate is usually lower limit for short-term interest rates in the money market. CNB interest rate it uses to excess liquidity, the banks with the CNB imposed overnight. The Lombard rate is the contrary, the upper limit for this movement.

Jan Soukup, soukupj@mediafax.cz

Was this article: 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0


Last news from the section Macroeconomics:

So   7:50  Česká koruna jako nejnadhodnocenější měna světa? Research (Investicniweb.cz)
Pá 22:00  Closing Bell & výhled na 23. 7. Grant Capital (Grant Capital)


ČNB sníží základní úrokovou sazbu o 0,25 procentního bodu, odhadují analytici

Diskuze a názory

Na dané téma nejsou žádné názory.


Zobrazit sloupec 
Moner | ISIN database | Weather forecast
Česká verze
Kurzy.cz - Akcie cz, kurzy měn, forex, zlato.
Favorite: Prague Stock Exchange Czech crown Czech economy Commodities Gold Trademarks Prague Weather

Copyright © 2000 - 2018

Kurzy.cz, spol. s r.o., AliaWeb, spol. s r.o.,

ISSN 1801-8688