Research (Investicniweb.cz)
Czech markets  |  July 08, 2012 16:36:21

The idea of ??three investment experts: Central Europe to exciting purchases



Romanian restitution fund, Hungarian bonds or even real estate - and our region has to offer to investors. Just choose carefully and keep their eyes from the euro area that mixes card with which to play the rest of Europe, agree experts from three countries, which gradually Investment website visited.

John Pavlik (Wood & Company)

What awaits us?Stock in our region suffers from a lot of that activity is low, the volume of trades fell. It unfortunately does not change over the summer, all summer use to relax. I do not expect any such changes, which means that the exchange did not go up much either, nor should the power fail. In September, then all return to work and will have something happen. I believe that there is still a major slump, and then perhaps go up. It does not matter whether we are talking about Germany, Czech, Hungarian or even market. Of course, if there is any downturn will hurt us more, the fall may be greater. On the other hand, waiting for a deeper downturn and boost growth. We need to make something happen that at least part of the problem finally solved, for example, to solve once and for all Greece.It is simply necessary Aténám say, "You remain, you will have the euro, but the conditions are such and such. Or, unfortunately, are leaving." Sure, it sounds strict. But he is the problem if it persists, will return. He will return in six months or a year.

What to invest? All think that the shares have no performance. The same is true of bonds, which offered security. It even happens that money market funds and bond funds ends in minus. This means that something is probably wrong. Alternatives are, like commodities - from gold to wheat. This is an option that certainly has to diversify logic. It is a lot of other interesting assets, depending on the current situation. If we get into a situation where some assets are under pressure - that someone will have to sell - it's definitely interesting. The same goes for buying a flat.Not that I would be afraid when the price will be interesting. In Prague, we experienced a real estate bubble, but you can not say enough burst. Demand for housing was quite considerable, but still do not read in the newspapers that people would not have to repay the mortgage or that developers zlevňovali by 50%. Property prices have fallen, but it's a great opportunity.

Into what he invest? In my case a little bit true sayings of Kovářov mare who goes barefoot. First, I have certain restrictions, and secondly - perhaps it's wrong, well maybe - I chose the strategy that the stress in my work enough for me to even more distressing because of its own equity positions. Sure, I have some investments, but rather in the funds through private bankers and the like, before I made ??some stock picking. Last time I bought some shares directly about a year and a half, was a Romanian restitution fund, which seemed like a lot of interesting matter. And I am convinced that she still is. Romanians copied, among other things better in our voucher privatization. They made a restitution fund from which pay restitution, and stuffed it into shares in various companies.

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  • Juraj Valach (Tatrabanka)

    What awaits us? This can result in a combination of higher inflation and decent growth. In this case, everything worked, but some time we were faced with inflation at 5-6%. This would reduce the real value of debt. Or is a variant of depression, high unemployment and so on. By comparison, in my opinion is much more acceptable inflationary scenario. Therefore, I expect him to just happen. People will have a job. Although there is a devaluation of their savings, but it will not feel as intensely as 20% unemployment.It would be problematic from the perspective of politicians, which speaks in favor of just the inflation scenario. Sure, Germany is against, but if you pull the surrounding country to the bottom, too much space on any negotiations have not. Berlin and eventually I will have to accept higher inflation.

    What to invest? My preferred scenario allows for higher inflation. It means investing in instruments that are in a way protected against inflation. Typically, shares or bonds secured against inflation, which offers such as the German Federal Government. And if someone is convinced that we are utter chaos, it can buy gold or something like that. It is generally recommended to keep at about 10% of assets in gold. I would like to add that it is good to have some small coins to liquid and could be cashed.

    Into what he invest? Try as quickly as possible to get rid of debt. If I for example due to recession, lost his job and had to find another, perhaps less well paid, I could not get into trouble. I'll have to continue to cover basic expenses (food, medicines and so on). So I try to reduce your debt, not exposed to too much pressure from the banks. If you deduct mortgage is a person, his living expenses are not so large.

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  • György Barcza (K & H Bank)

    What awaits us? If we look into the past, so that confirms that Hungary goes to the very edge of the abyss, but then takes a step back. It can be repeatedly observed during the last 50 years. Now we are on that edge. The probability that the gap in time or crash, however I think more than 50%, especially if we wait for help from the International Monetary Fund.It would provide funding for the next three years, which reassured investors. I would add that if Hungary manages to keep the budget deficit below 2%, can not wait to fall in the foreign debt without growth. Now the country's net foreign debt at 50% and we pay him at a rate of 4-5% per year. For 10 years, and Hungary may be similarly stable as other countries in the region. As regards the euro area, we are not too optimistic, even in the outlook for next year. Several large countries - France, Italy and Spain - a fact told to fiscal consolidation. The first good year so it may be to 2014.

    What to invest?Hungary is now somewhere in the middle of the day, which landed in January and the end nastartovaného recovery. This can sometimes come at the end of next year before the election. You is not usually for capital markets very positive, growth usually stops about 6 months before the election. Therefore, in this context I would advise caution. Otherwise, the year was one of the forint currency to strengthen the most space and is still upwards. In 2010 when we experienced recovery - it was before the euro zone economy fell into recession - the forint was still about 7% stronger than now. And bond yields were about 1 to 1.5% lower. Certainly, from January to have revenues of around 2 percentage points dropped, but still offer very attractive returns that are comparable with South Africa.Certainly, South Africa is a nice country, but from the perspective of the investor is a European country probably safer. I therefore think that over the next year, year and a half, Hungary will have to offer.

    Into what he invest? In Hungary, we have retail bonds. These are only offered to local and inflation plus 5% yield. They like it. At the same time hold bonds that I bought gradually over the last 6 months. You never know when the bottom comes, but if you buy during the ongoing crisis, you have the right strategy. Oh and also I play a bit with the currency, there is of course very difficult. There is a political risk, for example, which is now much harder to predict market direction. Any politician can say something is in Germany or even in Hungary, and the market's folds.Recently, for example the European Commission sent a positive signal to Hungary and the forint strengthened during the two days of nearly 7%. Then came criticism from the International Monetary Fund and the forint weakened significantly. Currency fluctuations similar while suffering the most. Therefore, I would generally say that if the euro and around 300 forints forint is cheap.

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