Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
World markets  |  July 17, 2012 08:21:00

Disappointing U.S. retail support of the euro

U.S. June retail sales greatly disappointed when he dropped by 0.5% m / m While their expected market growth of 0.2%. This is the third monthly decline in a number of sales, which occurred for the first time since 2008. Due to the high dependency on the U.S. economy, private consumption so we can not wait for a lower GDP Q2 12, than analysts originally estimated. According to our colleagues would annualized economic growth in the U.S. in Q2 12 could slow to below 1%, while originally expected pace of 1.4%. The publication of the American retail foreign exchange markets reacted. Rate of the euro against the dollar, which weakened gradually during the day, thanks to the surprise turned negative and the common European currency will eventually scored about two tenths of one percent, when it came to 1,226 USD / EUR.

Consumer inflation in the EMU has increased year on year in June in line with analysts' expectations of 2.4%, the same as in May. The price of mom expression slightly decreased by 0.1%, while markets expected stagnation. For the euro is a neutral or slightly positive message because it is obvious that with price stability is not currently a problem in the euro area. This indicator also shows core inflation excluding volatile items (food, fuel, fuel, alcohol and tobacco), which stands at 1.6% y / y.

Today the economic indicators will be richer. In Europe, an interesting German ZEW index in July, at which markets expect strong deepening of the June drop.In the U.S. we will see in particular the June consumer price inflation (consensus points to the monthly price stagnation) and industrial production, which is expected to increase by 0.3% m / m more than compensate for its slight decline in May.

Author: Mark Dřímal

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