Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Czech markets  |  July 18, 2012 16:20:31

Unipetrol tomorrow will present results for 2Q12 - estimates

Unipetrol notify the selected operating and financial indicators (the Trading Statements) for 2Q 2012, on Thursday, 19 April, before the market opens.

Unipetrol published model of margins on a monthly period, the company on Thursday as investors complete information on the volumes sold in 2Q12 and Management indicates its estimate of the level of operating profits for the second quarter of this year, both based on basic weighted average, and LIFO.

Segment Key influences on EBIT Unit 1Q11 4Q11 1Q12 y / y q / q Change q / q
Refinery   - Refining margin USD / b 0.3 2.2 2.6 767% 18% Positive
    - Brent / Ural differential USD / b 2.9 1.3 2.1 -28% 62% Positive
  - CZK / USD CZK 16.9 19.1 19.7 17% 3% Positive
    - Sold volume * t tonne 908.0 751.0 825.0 -9% 10% Positive
Petrochemicals   - Margin of olefins EUR / t 353.0 274.0 400.0 13% 46% Positive
    - Margin of polyolefins EUR / t 288.0 240.0 217.0 -25% -10% Negative
  - USD / EUR EUR 1.44 1.31 1.28 -11% -2% Negative
    - Sold volume t tonne 429.0 425.0 425.0 -1% 0% Neutral
* Including retail

The cumulative refinery margins in conjunction with the price difference between Urals and Brent crude oil stood at above 1Q12 $ 4.7 / barrel and the two basic indicators of profitability in the refinery and after the closure of some capacity in Europe (eg Petroplus) further recovering from historically low levels in 4Q11 (1.1 USD / bbl) and improved against 1Q12 (3.5 USD / bbl). Despite this improvement, we expect operating profit in the refinery is negative, mainly due to significant negative (nepeněžnímu) revaluation reserves of oil. An additional problem for the downstream activities of Unipetrol will supply shortages through the Druzhba pipeline and need replacing less economic means (IKL) during 2Q12. To benefit from the price range, respectively. Russian oil cheaper, so this time will most likely be very limited. Sold volumes of fuel are likely to remain relatively low despite improvements.

Petrochemical margins in 2Q12 were on average 18 percent better than QoQ 1Q12 margins and especially for olefins petrochemical industry should help to better (LIFO) operation numbers after the price of primary fuel (feedstock in the production of olefins) decreased in the last months of his record levels. So we would expect that the company can achieve positive petrochemical operating profit (LIFO), but The reported basic earnings remain rather negative, because negative revaluation reserves and the continued relatively low demand.

We believe that management of the company indicates an operating loss in 2Q12 and we expect the further improvement QoQ numbers on LIFO basis.

Thomas Sykora, Patria Finance

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