Research (Proinvestory.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  July 19, 2012 09:52:54

The food crisis on the horizon?


After the stock market price of maize increased from June through 40% (also similar to wheat, etc.) are not only the investment community begins to wonder whether we are on the brink of food crisis. The cause of the massive drought in the Midwest and western United States destroying crops and basically at the beginning of July here in Chicago could not go outside leisurely or longer than 20 min. Without the man was dehydrated and exhausted. According to meteorological forecasts, companies will probably neteplejším July for 117 years.This week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture in its regular report forecast decreased domestic production by 12% and the 2012-2013 estimate of closing stock by 37%! U.S. is the most significant "player" in the field of global supply potravinama and as the world's largest exporter of corn, soybeans and wheat are involved in every one of these three tonnes of grain traded on world markets. The corn is then made into ethanol biofuel also, the price of the stock market then strengthened from June to 25.79%.

Price of agricultural commodities and growing third summer of the last five years and certainly have investors and politicians have in mind the situation of the years 2007-2008 when the drought in Argentina and Australia have contributed to increases in prices of cereals and subsequently began the social and political unrest in more than 30 countries. Still, the situation does not become serious, however, since the increases in cereal prices have apparently not enough to fully reflect inflation statistics, mainly in less developed countries where food prices are an essential part of the consumer price index. But even so, the UN and the OECD in its annual reports predict food prices at higher levels in the next 10-years. An important factor is that stocks are not at the same level as in previous years when there were sharp increases in prices due to sudden external shocks. So it will be interesting to see how the market will develop if shed come any further adverse production estimates.

In analytic circles begin to appear and forecasts corn prices around 9 USD per bushel (1 bushel is about 25.4 kg). This would represent an increase přisoučasné cost about $ 1.60 per bushel and the movement of 8 000 USD per contract traded on an exchange in Chicago.

-Webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "> financial crisis combined with the food crisis is not just a good prospect for the future.

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