World markets  |  July 26, 2012 18:09:08

The Greek non-repayable debt ... / BIG EXPERT - Foreign Markets: Week from 23 7th 2012


Further review of the Greek economy is not at all nice. According to Reuters, Greece again lags behind the agreed schedule, and it starts a new round of negotiations adrenaline about how to proceed.

The first way may lead to softening of the conditions and fiscal targets for Athens. This would require further significant increase in emergency funds for Greece and practically nowhere in Europe is political will. Furthermore, it left too much money. The moment teetering on the edge of falling into the safety nets Spain, the Union with another distributing money from the rescue fund EFSF cautious. It remains to effectively around 150 billion euros, which itself needs to Spain may live on for maximum profit.Before the balloon inflated rescue new ESM (additional 500 billion euros), not necessarily on the increase of the Greek package simply money. ESM yet become operational before the end of September, and its verdict by a German constitutional court, and the Greeks probably run out of money in mid-August.

The second option is to push harder to save Greece. This in turn is unacceptable for Athens, which is the fifth year in a recession and the economy this year falls by more than about 7%. It's hard to imagine how fragile coalition with tens of thousands of protesters in the streets of uncompromising austerity measures adopted quickly.

And you probably have no choice but to go the third way and admit that the existing debt of Greece will never be repaid.There will probably controlled by either another Greek debt restructuring (this time will be blood official creditors), and Greece will be cut off or other emergency money and liquidity from the ECB pushed the euro area and pushed the uncontrolled bankruptcy.

EXPERT OPINION: Jan Bures, PSB

Opinions of experts on future developments in selected foreign markets monitored by indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) in a one and a half months of the year in week 23 7th The 2012th


Experts estimate for the period of 1 month

Pointer
Hodn.
20th 7th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
898.00
905.17
908
^ 0.80
881 to 940
4
2
Dow Jones (U.S.)
12 810,35
12 731,00
12 755
ˇ -0.62
12 500 - 12 900
A
5
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 925,30
2 893,67
2888
ˇ -1.08
2854 - 2950
A
5
FTSE 100 (VB)
5 651,80
5 610,83
5628
ˇ -0.72
5500 - 5750
2
4
DAX (Germany)
6 630,02
6 520,83
6523
ˇ -1.65
6390 - 6650
2
4
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 669,87
8 601,33
8570
ˇ -0.79
8443 - 8800
2
4


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
20th 7th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
898.00
934.50
935
^ 4.07
907 to 955
6
0
Dow Jones (U.S.)
12 810,35
13 149,33
13 078
^ 2.65
12 900 - 13 490
6
0
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 925,30
3 074,00
3050
^ 5.08
2939 - 3330
6
0
FTSE 100 (VB)
5 651,80
5 889,17
5825
^ 4.20
5665 - 6300
6
0
DAX (Germany)
6 630,02
6 820,17
6750
^ 2.87
6550 - 7290
4
2
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 669,87
8 994,50
8925
^ 3.74
8697 - 9320
6
0

Reviews carried out in this week:

  • Menčík Thomas, George SIMAR - Cyrrus
  • Libor Bucek, John Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlin
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Charles handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • James Mensik, Paul Skořepa - LUTHERUS
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" the value of the observed indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimation was based. Using this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is surrounded by the size of a structured set of assumptions and "Interval Estimates" indicates the minimum and maximum estimate file.Columns "Increase / decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index in the period considered, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are non-binding form of views with regard to the outlook for the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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O nesplatitelném řeckém dluhu... / BIG EXPERT - zahraniční trhy: týden od 23. 7. 2012

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