Research (Investicniweb.cz)
Czech markets  |  July 31, 2012 19:25:12

CEZ, Komercni banka & al.: Czech Republic offers quality defensive stocks



Austrian banks will reward investors who wait. Those who work with short-term horizons, would then be able to pay a bet on the Austrian industrial firms, such as Lenzing or Schoeller-Bleckmann, says equity analyst at Raiffeisenbank Stefan Maxian. The region is interesting for fans of Defence Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania, by contrast, are suitable for lovers of adrenaline.

After a moment of calm in the euro area and its basically the whole world gets back under pressure. What do you expect will happen in global markets? And how much it will move our region?

Stefan Maxian (SM): The most important of course, is how the euro area will resolve the crisis. Our baseline scenario envisages that we will continue to "wallow" forward. In this case, not counting the fact that any of the countries left the monetary union. In other words, it is still similar to yet. In practice this means that the Spanish and Italian yields will rise again. Aversion will be higher because a cutting, in a way which will affect trade in Central and Eastern Europe. Not all countries but to suffer as well.

How much will the continuing nervousness Czech penalized according to you?

SM:If we focus on the Czech Republic, the currency is still quite strong. Earth has no problems with financing and has a volume of deposits, which can be considered as a good base. It is clear that markets are beginning to distinguish between countries.

This means that the Czech Republic are now from the perspective of the investor's interesting? Or more generally, markets in the region that you think are interesting, and who advise rather avoid?

SM: This is currently very difficult to say. Indeed, much depends on what happens on what scenario you bet. Let's focus on equity. It depends on how big the market is and also what is traded on it. In the case of the Czech Republic, Hungary, as well as Romania and Croatia, the stock market is dominated by a few degrees.

In the case of the Czech Republic - if we exclude the foreign titles traded on the Prague Stock Exchange - a very defensive market. The biggest titles are CEZ, Telefonica and Commercial Bank - although the bank, but very strongly capitalized and the whole defensive. Therefore, an investor who wants to bet on the bank, but he thinks the defense should buy shares in Commercial Bank.

Czech shares: Outlook for the holidays
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In other words, the Czech Republic is a good defensive. And what if the investor waits for a turn for the better?

SM: If the negative scenario, and one wants to be on the lee side, so to speak, then the Czech Republic is a good choice. If you are betting more on health improvement, such as shop in Romania and Hungary. These countries, however, be noted that they still have structural problems that must be solved. Their stock markets have fallen significantly, however, than the stock exchange such as the Czech Republic, which may be of interest.

What Austria, which is often a little neglected in the region? What the market is or could be interesting in the case of scenarios with which you work now?

SM:The Austrian market is interesting that it is traded on several industrial companies. This region is otherwise so common. These include Andritz, Lenzing, Schoeller-Bleckmann and Kapsch. These are not just regional players, their activities are global, in many respects it is even possible is considered to be global leaders. And most of these titles do not fall so much. Then there are the traditional regional or Austrian players, such as banks. They are strongly linked with Central and Eastern Europe, as well as the energy company OMV, Telekom Austria and Wienerberger.

You mention links Central and Eastern Europe, with some titles traded in Vienna. How is development in the region turns out to Vienna?

SM:Generally speaking, until 2008, Austria was a sort of intermediary that allows projection of profit from the Central and Eastern Europe. From 2000 to 2008 titles tied with Central and Eastern Europe traded in Austria to offer better returns than the rest of the titles. Since 2008, the opposite is true. Sentiment will be considerably changed. The course of industrial society, which plays in global markets, not in the region. It is also necessary to recall that the index of the Vienna Stock Exchange have a lot of weight banks and insurance companies, so it has a big impact of the current happenings in the financial sector.

As Stefan Maxian looks to bank shares? Continuation of the interview can be found on Web Investment

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