Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  August 01, 2012 16:49:00

Tomorrow meets CNB

Development of regional foreign exchange markets were rather quiet today, probably when the markets were waiting for the conclusions of the central bank (Fed meeting announcing the results today, the CNB and ECB tomorrow). Zloty and the forint against the gains attributed to yesterday's levels of roughly one third percent, the crown improved by 0.2%, while the afternoon shifted under 25.30 CZK / EUR.

PMI Czech industry in July again positively surprised. Despite the expected decline in our 46.0 index points to the contrary marginally (by 0.1 pp) improved to 49.5 points. PMI has proven to the stagnation of production, the continued decline in new orders from the domestic economy and abroad for the following months, however, does not promise anything good.Polish PMI also exceeded expectations, rising to 49.7 points (out of 48 points, consensus 47.2 points), the Hungarian index fell to 51.9 points from 52.8 points in June.

Czech government budget deficit to the end of June fell to 51.7 billion CZK from CZK 71.7 billion in May, is now at about 49% of the planned value of 105 billion CZK. Compared to June, the improved collection of VAT, which is higher by 0.1% y / y. The budget allows for, but its growth by 15.5% y / y and it is already clear that at the end of this target to be achieved. The ministry will also be the final decisive deficit influx of money from EU funds.

Tomorrow will meet the CNB Bank Board. After reducing the repo rate to a record low 0.5% at the last meeting, we expect that tomorrow CNB leaves rates unchanged. This corresponds to the market consensus. It also introduced a new forecast the central bank, which should point to weaker GDP growth and a higher overall inflation compared to the previous view.

The long end of the Czech swap yield curve today by 2 cells increased the short end remained unchanged.

Author: Mark Dřímal

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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